One of France’s most influential voices in foreign policy and diplomacy claims that the EU’s relative decline in global power and influence is occurring three times faster than was the case when imperial China collapsed under the Qing dynasty in the nineteenth century.
In a comprehensive essay published in “Le Grand Continent”, Luis Vassy, director of the prestigious university Sciences Po and a former senior French diplomat, warns that Europe is losing its grip on reality. The world today is governed by power politics. Western values and rules come, at best, in second place.
“Europe Must Learn Power Politics and Strategic Thinking”
Vassy supports his warnings with concrete figures: Between 2008 and 2025 – in just 17 years – the EU’s share of the world economy fell from 30 to 17 per cent. By comparison, China took 50 years (1820–1870) to experience a similar relative decline. France today accounts for only one per cent of the world’s population and 2.5 per cent of global production.
– In relative terms, we are declining three times faster than the Qing dynasty, writes Vassy.
The collapse of the Qing dynasty led to the “Century of Humiliation” – a hundred-year period marked by foreign invasions, loss of sovereignty, technological inferiority and internal disintegration. Vassy uses history as an indication of how rapidly a formerly dominant civilisation can lose its position when it fails to adapt to changing global power relations.
According to Vassy, Europe’s fate is increasingly being determined by forces beyond Europe’s own borders:
– The conditions of our common life, our social model, our freedom and our ability to choose our own path are largely determined outside Europe.
He criticises the European power elite – above all in Brussels and Paris – for treating international politics as an extension of domestic politics; they are unable to understand it as an arena characterised by power, competition and strategic thinking. Europe has moved from exercising influence in the world to becoming subject to the influence of others.
People don't grasp the sheer speed and scale of Europe's decline.
This 👇 is an extraordinary number shared by Luis Vassy, director of Sciences Po (one of France's most famous schools) in this article: https://t.co/N7pRCfuXVv
He calculated that the EU is declining 3 times… pic.twitter.com/ec3qakYGFw
— Arnaud Bertrand (@RnaudBertrand) June 3, 2026
Vassy believes Europe is in need of a radical intellectual reorientation. The power elite must rediscover strategic autonomy, the language of power and the hard realities associated with “international anarchy”. Power politics and strategic thinking must once again be placed at the centre of the education of European leaders.
Vassy’s concerns have attracted attention – particularly among realists. The fact that they come from deep within the French establishment makes them no less interesting.