USA and Israel have killed the two top layers of the Iranian leadership. Those who have taken over are far more compliant and smarter, said Trump at a press conference laced with Trumpisms: spontaneous impulses and outbursts. Trump appears to suggest that a regime change is underway in Tehran, analogous to the course change in Venezuela. The USA took out the leader, and the rest changed course. Something similar is underway in Tehran, Trump believes.
«They have a new group of leaders whom I actually think are smarter. I think they are very smart. I think they are far less radicalised», said Trump.
«I think they are really good», he said. «They love their country. You know, one talks about regime change. No one will say it. But I assume that the first group of leaders is completely gone. The second group of leaders is completely gone. The third group of leaders is somewhat gone, and frankly I think a regime change is underway. I think they are going to behave completely differently. I think they see a different way of life», he said.
Time will tell whether he is right. In the meantime, Iranian spokesmen issue statements in the familiar style that the Strait of Hormuz belongs to them and that foreigners should disappear.
Trump is generous. He says that Iran must be allowed to keep some ballistic missiles. That it is not fair that the neighbours should have rockets while they themselves are left without. These are new tones.
But long-range missiles intended for nuclear weapons are something else, said Trump.
During the press conference it is clear that he sets his own premises for the agreement and its implementation. This also applies to his enemies, such as Obama, who are trying to claim that the memorandum is worse than his JCPOA.
All Trump’s enemies say it: European media and so-called experts. They try to portray it as a capitulation and do not appear to have taken on board that the Iranian leaders are dead and that their military capacity has been destroyed.
Trump acts with confidence.
Iran has received exemptions from the sanctions and can begin trading immediately.
«The US Department of the Treasury will grant exemptions for the export of Iranian crude oil, petroleum products and derivatives as well as all associated services, including banking transactions, insurance, transport etc.», the agreement states, according to officials. They refused to produce the written text of the agreement.
An official emphasised that the oil exemptions are the only major benefit Iran will receive before a final agreement is in place, and claimed that the measure would increase transparency around Iranian oil sales while helping to reduce global energy prices.
Trump thinks of economics and diplomacy as two sides of the same coin. The others think in terms of confrontation and game theory: one man’s death is another man’s bread.
The relationship with Israel is special. The USA is now stepping back and taking the leading role. The USA is leading the mediation between Israel and Lebanon, and this is happening without Hezbollah. Trump sees a chance for a comprehensive peace, and Lebanon plays an important role there. Therefore Israel must stop bombing Beirut. Southern Lebanon is another matter.
You do not bomb an entire block to get one person, was a vivid image, and meant seriously.
Trump also revealed that Israel pulled out at the eleventh hour just before General Soleimani was to be taken out at the airport in Baghdad. He had to do it alone. Trump has said this before. He wants to refute that Israel has been the brave one towards Iran all along.
«To be completely honest, because they have been fantastic towards me, Israel. But they did not want to carry out that attack. They were completely ready the evening before the attack. They informed me that they did not want to carry it out, so I had to make a decision. I decided to carry it out», said Trump.
Trump says that cooperation with Netanyahu has been fantastic, but that the USA has bigger plans. He will relate to Israel’s security, but it cannot come at the expense of peace in the region, which in the long run is the only thing that can secure Israel’s future.
Thus he sidelines everyone on the right wing who says that Trump allows himself to be dictated to by Israel.