“`html
With the attack this morning, the United States and Israel have launched a major campaign against Iran. But can a regime which only a few weeks ago killed tens of thousands of its own citizens be overthrown by air strikes alone?
Israel’s Minister of Defence, Israel Katz, stated after the attack, which began at 07.10 early this morning:
“The State of Israel has initiated a pre-emptive strike against Iran in order to avert threats to the State of Israel.”
Iran responded, as is well known, with retaliatory strikes a few hours later, with missile attacks against both Israel and American bases in the Middle East.
“The attack on Iran in daylight is a surprise. It appears to be systematically directed at leaders, internal authorities, internal power structures and the regime’s apparatus,” writes military expert Nico Lange on X.
Strikes directed at both the political, religious and military leadership of the Iranian regime indicate that Israel and the United States are carrying out an attack with “decapitation” as strategy.
Both Ayatollah Khamenei’s command centre and the residence of the Iranian President, Massoud Peseshkian, were hit, according to reports. It is, however, unclear whether the two supreme leaders were in fact eliminated.
Rumours are circulating that Khamenei was struck, but according to Iranian officials Khamenei was taken to a safe location outside Tehran before the attacks.
However, several media report that Mohammed Pakpour, head of the Revolutionary Guard, and the Minister of Defence Amir Nasirzadeh are both said to have been killed in the strikes.
Targeted strikes have also been carried out against the regime’s own military force, the Revolutionary Guard.
The Americans called their operation “Epic Fury”, while the Israelis called it “The Lion’s Roar”.
This refers to the fact that the lion was a central symbol on the Iranian national flag prior to the Islamic Revolution, something we see clearly in demonstrations against the mullah regime in the West. In biblical terms, the lion also represents the strength of the people of Judea.
The attack nevertheless raises a number of questions. Can, for example, a regime which only a few weeks ago shot down tens of thousands of demonstrators be overthrown by air strikes alone? How serious can Iranian retaliation be against American bases in the region and American allies? And for how long can the Americans and the Israelis sustain the air war?
Media in the United States and Israel speak of an operation that is to last for “a few days”. The question is whether this is sufficient.
According to an analysis from the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS), the United States has significant air power in the area, “but it lacks marines and special forces for raids or ground operations and the logistics for a more prolonged air campaign”.
CSIS is clearly correct that the available naval forces are not capable of carrying out a ground invasion of Iran. Nor is this part of the United States’ plans.
It nevertheless seems unlikely that two carrier strike groups do not possess a considerable number of special forces, capable of carrying out targeted missions behind enemy lines. During the 12-day war, special forces soldiers broke into an Iranian underground facility suspected of producing nuclear weapons.
CSIS maintains that the United States did not assemble sufficient forces in the Gulf for a “comprehensive, multi-week air campaign”, since they will run out of ammunition sooner or later.
If this is correct, it means that the United States and Israel are dependent upon Iranian demonstrators contributing to the overthrow of the regime in Tehran. This could quickly become a rather bloody affair.
However, Iran will also run out of ammunition after some time, since it does not possess an unlimited number of missiles. It is assumed that Iran only has enough missiles for three attacks against Israel of a certain magnitude, and most of these missiles will in any case be shot down before reaching their targets, whether in Israel or at the American bases.
The son of the deposed Shah, Reza Pahlavi, urged the Iranian people first to seek safety, but also to prepare to take to the streets again.
“The help that the President of the United States promised the brave people of Iran has now arrived. This is a humanitarian intervention; the target is the Islamic Republic, its apparatus of oppression and its machinery of massacre – not the country or the great Iranian nation. But even with this help arriving, the final victory will still be won by our own hands,” said Pahlavi in his first reaction to the attacks.
Pahlavi also urged Iranian security forces to lay down their weapons rather than go down with Khamenei’s sinking ship. Trump has done the same.
Following the attacks on American bases in the area, the President has prepared the American people for losses, including among the United States’ own soldiers. These bases lie much closer to Iran than Israel does, and the short warning time may therefore create problems for attempts to prevent the missiles from reaching their targets.
Iran has no chance of winning this war, since it is already severely weakened after the 12-day war in June last year. But regardless of how superior the United States, with support from Israel, may be in the air, this is not a guarantee of complete military victory on that side either.
Fabian Hoffman, who is a doctoral research fellow in political science at the University of Oslo, and researches missile technology, nuclear strategy and defence policy, writes on X what he thinks.
1) Within a few hours, the United States, together with Israel, will establish complete air dominance over Iran. What follows will be a highly visible demonstration of power that only the United States can carry out on this scale.
2) The American and Israeli air forces will conduct continuous operations against Iranian transporter-erector-launchers and launch platforms, i.e. 24/7. Sortie generation constituted a major challenge for Israel during the 12-day war. United States participation resolves this problem.
3) Stand-off capabilities will play only a limited role beyond the initial phase. Anti-radiation and cruise missiles may be used against SEAD and DEAD targets in the first strike, but most effects will likely come from direct attack munitions.
4) Iran’s ability to generate large ballistic missile launches will be limited to one or two, perhaps three, major salvos. Thereafter, attrition of the TEL fleet will reduce launches to sporadic ballistic missile activity with limited impact.
5) Iran’s most likely strategy is to prolong the conflict and inflict sufficient damage on American forces and regional partners to alter domestic opinion in the United States. If Iran assesses that it can inflict significant damage on American bases and forces, it will pursue that course; otherwise, it is most likely that it will carry out full-scale retaliatory strikes against Israel.
6) The operation will be a major test for the United States Air Force and provide American military personnel with important combat experience, as the United States prepares for a potential confrontation with China, which has not yet fought an intense war under modern conditions.
The mullahs’ tactic may very well be to hold out as long as possible and inflict sufficient losses on the Americans in the Gulf to alter opinion in the United States.
It is, however, at present unclear how many of these Iranian offensive capabilities survived the first waves of attacks.
The United Nations Security Council is today convening an emergency meeting on the situation in the Middle East. The United Nations Secretary-General António Guterres has, not exactly surprisingly, already condemned the attack against Iran.
– I condemn today’s military escalation in the Middle East. The use of force by the United States and Israel against Iran, and the subsequent retaliation from Iran across the region, undermines international peace and security, writes Guterres on social media.
At the same time, Iranian authorities are urging residents of Tehran to leave the capital.
Iran’s Supreme Leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, is said to address the people shortly as this article is published, according to Iran’s Al-Alam TV. We shall therefore soon learn whether he is still alive.
“`