One feature of the war in the Persian Gulf goes unmentioned by Norway’s state broadcaster NRK: that Iran does not dare attack Israel. It attacks all its other neighbouring countries, but not the Jewish state. Why? Because the regime does not dare. It knows retaliation is guaranteed, and the regime does not dare challenge two enemies simultaneously, even though this runs contrary to the prevailing ideology.
Israel has thus restored its deterrent capability, writes Hugh Hewitt.
That is the very definition of deterrence: that an enemy does not dare attack you, even though it would very much like to.
Iran has refrained from attacking Israel during the past ten days of fighting because it fears retaliation from the Israel Defense Forces (IDF). Deterrence has therefore been restored. The Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) no longer dares attack the Jewish state. Now the regime must come to fear firing on Americans, its Arab neighbours, or international shipping.
This is undoubtedly a major victory for the Jewish state. That is why the matter passes without comment in the European media, which grow progressively weaker as Trump continues to hammer the regime.
It is now a military dictatorship led by Ahmad Vahidi, a general in the Revolutionary Guard Corps. He had in fact retired, but took the reins when Israel and Iran annihilated the leadership.
The remaining rump regime appears to be a military dictatorship headed by the 68-year-old commander-in-chief of the Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps, Ahmad Vahidi, who returned from retirement to lead the military dictatorship after the initial strike on Iran’s leadership killed a number of the country’s senior officials.
The successor as Supreme Leader, Mojtaba Khamenei, is said to have been moved out of the country. He has yet to appear.
Shiite theology glorifies dying for the Cause. But even Khomeini saw the writing on the wall and made peace with Saddam Hussein in 1988 after several years of war. Khomeini said it was like drinking poison. Vahidi took part at that time. He has seen that Iran can bend, but how far is Iran today from its pain threshold?
Vahidi is a veteran of that war. Perhaps the dictator will follow the example of the original Supreme Leader, as well as the advice of his civilian advisers and the public figures in Iran whom some believe understand the scale of the defeat inflicted on Iran. Iran’s President, Masoud Pezeshkian, and Foreign Minister, Seyed Abbas Araghchi, wield almost no power over the dictator and his armed forces, which killed tens of thousands of Iranian citizens in January. But the civilians have hinted at the reality of a shattered country, and the shattered proxy forces in Gaza and Lebanon should also weigh heavily on Vahidi. Does he want the IRGC to go the way of Hamas and Hezbollah?
How many cards does Vahidi still have left to play? Only the Houthis, and they are now on the move. It may become a regional conflict, but hardly one that either the Houthis or Iran can win.
Vahidi could secure a ceasefire within hours if he reopened the Strait of Hormuz and allowed the inspectors into Pickaxe Mountain.
Iran could achieve a ceasefire within a matter of hours if it ceased firing on commercial shipping and agreed to implement minimal measures, such as comprehensive inspections by the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) of its known nuclear weapons development facilities as well as Pickaxe Mountain.
But he has one card that no one is talking about: the support of the Western media. Perhaps that is what is keeping him going?
The media cling to the hope that soaring oil prices will torpedo Trump’s midterm election.
It is probably a little too early to celebrate.
https://www.foxnews.com/opinion/morning-glory-america-winning-battle-iran-matter-time