Statnett has calculated that Norwegian offshore wind power will probably never be profitable without state support.
This does not worry Energy Minister Terje Aasland (Labour). He intends to press ahead regardless.
– Fortunately, the government’s offshore wind initiative is not based on a single analysis from Statnett. We have a very clear objective: we want to develop offshore wind on the Norwegian continental shelf,” Aasland told Klassekampen.
Statnett is, incidentally, owned by the state, through Aasland’s own ministry.
The figures in Statnett’s new market analysis are stark. Statnett estimates that Norwegian offshore wind will generate 9 terawatt-hours by 2040. The government’s ambition is up to 130 terawatt-hours. That is over 14 times as much, and almost as much as Norway’s entire electricity production today.
Statnett also believes that development will come to a complete halt in 2040.
“If support for offshore wind in Norway is not continued, development in Norway will probably come to a halt after the first two projects,” says Anders Kringstad, head of department at Statnett, to Klassekampen.
Aasland admits that offshore wind will be expensive in the coming years, but believes costs can be driven down by building up value chains. He rejects the suggestion that the government’s ambitions have been scaled back.
As usual, the bill will be footed by taxpayers. The Storting has approved up to 23 billion kroner in support for Sørlige Nordsjø II and up to 35 billion for floating offshore wind at Utsira Nord. A total of 58 billion. These amounts are also to be subject to price adjustments.
Nor is Statnett alone in its criticism of offshore wind. The government’s own advisory committee on fiscal policy analysis believes that offshore wind is not profitable for society.
It was Jonas Gahr Støre who, in 2022, set out the target of allocating areas for 30,000 megawatts of offshore wind by 2040.
Four years later, not a single one of the first two wind farms has been built.
