The number of Ukrainian asylum seekers arriving in Norway has risen sharply this autumn, despite Norway having Europe’s strictest rules for Ukrainian refugees.
Among other things, Norway has decided not to grant automatic asylum to refugees from 14 counties in the western and central parts of Ukraine, which are considered relatively safe areas.
However, now that several other European countries are introducing stricter rules, the influx into Norway is rising again. In recent weeks, an average of over 45 Ukrainian war refugees have arrived in Norway every day, reports Aftenposten. This is despite the fact that men of military age are not granted collective protection.
“In September and October, the number of applicants has been somewhat higher than we expected, but we are still within the medium-range scenario,” says Wenche Fone, Director of Protection at the UDI.
Fone believes that the tightening of policies in other European countries and seasonal variations are possible explanations for the increase.
However, researcher Oleksandra Deineko at NIBR – the Institute for Urban and Regional Research at OsloMet – takes a different view. Deineko believes that the situation in Ukraine is the main cause.
– “There are, of course, expectations of an incredibly difficult winter ahead, and that Ukraine does not have the missiles to shoot down ballistic missiles. This means that people feel they are sitting ducks with no protection,” says Deineko.
In recent months, the number of civilians killed in Russian drone and missile attacks on Ukrainian cities has risen sharply. Constant power cuts are also causing problems. Many Ukrainians live in blocks of flats which become cold and uninhabitable when the power goes out.
“That is why many are trying to find somewhere to spend the winter. Some have relatives or acquaintances elsewhere in the country, but those who do not are trying to travel abroad,” explains Deineko.
Energy Minister Terje Aasland visited Kyiv on Tuesday 27 October. On that occasion, he pledged 500 million kroner in aid to Ukraine before winter, including for repairs to the energy system.
On Tuesday 3 November, exactly one week later, Finance Minister Jens Stoltenberg visited Kyiv to assess the threat posed by missile attacks to Ukraine’s vulnerable industry and infrastructure. Ukraine is dependent on support from Norway and other countries to get through the winter, according to Deineko.
– We can see that the number of people arriving is closely linked to Ukraine’s ability to get through the winter whilst under constant attack. Continued support for the country is therefore also one of the measures that can help prevent a new, massive wave of refugees.
If the Ukrainian authorities fail to repair vital infrastructure before winter, the number of people leaving Ukraine will only increase, warns Deineko.
