Volodymyr Zelenskyy’s visit to Norway is, in fact, an open criticism of US President Donald Trump’s unwillingness to continue supporting Ukraine in the war against Russia.
“Donald Trump has turned his back on Ukraine,” says Iver B. Neumann, Director of the Fridtjof Nansen Institute.
“This visit is a counter-move to consolidate Europe’s support for Ukraine,” Neumann told NTB.
Neumann points out, amongst other things, that Trump has asked Ukrainians to replace Zelenskyy. Kyiv postponed the country’s presidential election, which was originally due to be held in 2024, due to the ongoing war.
In addition, Trump has asked Ukraine to halt attacks on Russian oil refineries and criticised President Zelenskyy’s unwillingness to bring the war to an end.
– “Trump is now choosing to prioritise domestic policy and the mid-term elections. He wants to come across as a man of action, and he is turning his back on Ukraine to achieve a short-term gain in the US,” says Neumann.
– I simply do not believe he is particularly concerned that he is thereby risking the destruction of the NATO alliance.
It should go without saying that Ukraine is not a NATO member. But is Neumann perhaps suggesting that Trump does not seem particularly interested in going to war with Russia?
That is why Trump is sceptical about sending troops into Ukraine, as is being fantasised about in London and Paris, with growing support from other European NATO countries.
Moreover: after all, there are reasons other than US domestic politics for wanting an end to the war.
Among other things, some people believe it is desirable to prevent even more young Russians and Ukrainians from dying on the battlefield. Several hundred thousand young men have already lost their lives on the front line in this bloody war, which has now been raging for almost five years.
Ukraine’s cities are subjected to constant attacks that are also claiming civilian lives. The country is in an economic disaster from which it will probably never recover without enormous financial support from an EU that is itself in economic crisis.
Zelenskyy has also criticised the US for preventing Ukraine from accessing intelligence and early warning via Starlink satellites, which, according to him, has reduced the country’s ability both to defend itself against Russian missiles and drones and to strike targets in Russia itself.
– Europe now faces a choice. It can allow the US to reduce its support for Ukraine, in which case the Ukrainians will lose out to an aggressive Russia, or it can step up its support to further compensate for the lack of American support, says Neumann.
– Zelenskyy naturally wants the latter and is therefore coming to do what he does best: galvanise Europe’s support for Ukraine.
Norway already provides at least 85 billion kroner to Ukraine every year, which equates to around 60,000 kroner for a family of four. This is too little, suggests the director of the Fridtjof Nansen Institute.
Little faith in a breakthrough
Neumann has little faith that the meeting in Oslo will have any effect on the situation in Ukraine.
Trump’s envoy Steve Witkoff is also due in Oslo, whilst Trump’s son-in-law Jared Kushner is set to take part in the talks remotely, but Neumann believes neither a breakthrough in the negotiations nor a swift peace settlement is likely.
– I see no signs that Russia intends to back down. The Putin regime is completely fixated on this war. This is supposed to be the first step in the restoration of the Russian empire, and if they back down now, they’ll find they can wave goodbye to Russia as a superpower,” he says.
Putin could have ended the war several years ago, retained the territories they had conquered by then and declared victory, Neumann believes.
– But it has now been so long since they conquered any significant territory that it is becoming difficult to do so. The costs would then be too high in domestic political terms.
