Those awaiting President Trump’s decision on whether or not to use military force against the Islamic Republic have been distracted by Jeffrey Epstein, Mette Marit, Thorbjørn Jagland, Mona Juul and Rød Larsen – and Prince Marius Høiby. From Iran, the news flow is drying up, what comes out is becoming repetitive, there are countless individual tragedies to deal with, but there is relative silence about the progression of the counter-revolution.
There were obviously many expectations that Trump had the will – rhetorically he had encouraged the protesters, he had said help was on the way, he urged them to take over the institutions, he threatened the mullahs’ Islamic Republic; if they continued to kill Iranians he would make their lives hell.
… may equal, if not surpass Babi Yar
The reports are horrific. We understand that 30,000-40,000 Iranians have been killed, maybe more, maybe less.
The 8th and 9th of January may turn out to be the largest two-day slaughter of human beings in modern history, equalling if not surpassing the 29th and 30th of September 1941 when the Nazis killed 33,771 Jews over two days in Babi Yar, Kiev. The scale is extraordinary.
Iranian government officials are capitalising on US concerns about a protracted conflict in the Middle East by threatening to involve their regional partners and widen a potential conflict. Ali Khamenei warned on 1 February that a US attack would lead to regional war. Iran’s Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi also said on 1 February that if the US attacked, the conflict would spread throughout the region.
We recall @Focal PointUA’s forecast that we referred to in yesterday’s update – so far we favour it despite Iman Sefati’s counter-argument that the mullahs are just continuing to lie to buy time until Trump’s time in the White House is over:
– Over the next week, the Iran issue will slowly disappear from the mainstream press and an apparent normality will set in. The liberal press will claim that Trump did not keep his promise to the protesters. Israel will continue to attack Iran’s proxies, but the topic will disappear from the focus of “ordinary people”.
The Mullah regime will return to “normality” and come out of the bunkers, the IRGC will lower its alert level – everything will seemingly look like a “diplomatic solution”…
But the “Point of No Return” has long since passed. When there’s a sudden bang in Tehran, everyone will be surprised.
My assessment:
According to recent reports, it looks like the Islamic Republic has given in to the US on the nuclear issue, but continues to hold its ground on the missile programme and terror militias.That Ali Khamenei in the last two days has again… pic.twitter.com/AqAhj6GyfL
— Iman Sefati (@ISefati) February 2, 2026
Khamenei made his first public appearance in weeks on 31 January to mark the 47th anniversary of the Islamic Revolution. State media published pictures of him praying at Khomeini’s tomb just outside Tehran.
Opposition groups claim the appearance was staged. On 1 February, he gave a speech in which he warned of a “regional war” and accused the US of wanting to take control of Iran’s oil and gas resources.
Reports of killings and torture continue to emerge, but the regime claims to be in control after the “Israeli-American coup attempt”.
Historical enemies
– The Arabs are the Persians’ worst enemies.
Arabs are Iran’s worst enemy! NEVER FORGET! pic.twitter.com/8h4nt4t51e
— Tal Oran (@travelingclatt) February 1, 2026
Cracks in the dam?
Iranian journalist Parisa Hashemi confronted regime officials on TV about the killings during the protests, the economic collapse and the repression. “In any other country, representatives responsible for the massacre of the people would have committed suicide out of shame.”
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🚨 BREAKING: Iranian journalist Parisa Hashemi confronted regime officials on TV over the protest killings, economic collapse, and repression.
“In any other country, officials responsible for massacring the people would have killed themselves in shame.” pic.twitter.com/xE3JRDqw1M
– Yehuda Teitelbaum (@chalavyishmael) February 2, 2026
The rumours
– Open Source Intelligence (OSINT) sources have reported that the RC-135U Combat Sent aircraft has taken off from Okinawa and is en route to Qatar. The US only has two of these. The RC-135U is considered a strategic intelligence asset, designed to locate and analyse enemy radar systems.
OSINT sources have reported that the RC-135U Combat Sent aircraft has taken off from the US airbase in Okinawa en route to Al Udeid Air Base in Qatar.
The US has only two such aircraft worldwide. The RC-135U is considered a strategic intelligence asset, designed to locate enemy… pic.twitter.com/NZQYbTCQHf
— Chaya’s Clan (@ChayasClan) February 2, 2026
– 400 kilograms of 60 per cent enriched uranium is missing. That’s enough for around ten nuclear bombs if the regime takes a relatively small step forward in enrichment. After the attacks in June, the US said the stockpiles had been destroyed. The International Atomic Energy Agency later said they were not destroyed and that no one knows where they are. That’s why the negotiations could be crucial to neutralising the most dangerous material on earth before it disappears into the shadows. It could put all major Western cities at risk through proxies.
🚨 MOSSAD COMMENTARY: WHY US-IRAN NEGOTIATIONS MAY MATTER MORE THAN ANYTHING ELSE
Everyone wants to talk about protests and regime change in Iran. That matters….It matters alot.
Unfortunately, it may not be the most urgent danger.Right now, ~400 kg of 60% enriched uranium… pic.twitter.com/Yr2s1soxCQ
— Mossad Commentary (@MOSSADil) February 2, 2026
– Khomeini’s former president and close friend, Bani Sadr claims that Khomeini issued a secret fatwa authorising the purchase of weapons from Israel. As a result, 80 per cent of Khomeini’s weapons came from Israel.
Khomeini’s former president and close friend, Bani Sadr:
Khomeini issued a secret fatwa authorising buying weapons from Israel
As a result, 80% of Khomeini’s weapons came from Israel pic.twitter.com/faNlPaEmr5
— Xumas (@xumas_iq) February 2, 2026
– The Islamic Republic imprisoned two 12-year-old girls for protesting. They returned home shaking, crying and mentally broken. A regime that tortures children is a criminal organisation.
The Islamic Republic just imprisoned two 12-year-old girls for protesting. Twelve! Not criminals. Not militants. Children. They came home shaking, crying, psychologically broken. Any regime that tortures kids is not a government, it’s a criminal enterprise.
And the world’s… pic.twitter.com/DeL9nsubin— Helix 🇺🇸 (@spiralgazer) February 2, 2026
Compassion comes from within
– A Canadian man wept silently for Iran’s victims in a corner during the Free Iran demonstration. An Iranian noticed him and gave him a hug. I don’t know who he is, but now he’s Iranian.
A Canadian man was quietly crying for Iran’s victims at the Free Iran protest in a corner.
Iranian noticed him and gave him a hug.I don’t know who you are, but you’re an Iranian now.#IranMassacre #JavidShah pic.twitter.com/UaUg59zU41
— Neo (@Realneo101) February 2, 2026
Iran protests, day 36: – The Islamic regime stands in solidarity with all victims of tyrants