It’s been a week since we last published an Iran update. Since the brutal slaughter of protesters on 8 and 9 January, the protests have receded from the streets, but the social mood is described as bitter, angry and uneasy. The protest movement is not gone – it has been pushed underground; that is, “Death to the dictator” is now being shouted from balconies and in the street.
Day 45 of the protests coincided with the 47th anniversary of the 1979 Islamic Revolution. The regime organised large official celebrations across the country, with flags, fireworks and cries of “Death to America” countered by shouts of “Reza Pahlavi”.
Clear signs of regime fatigue
On 9 February, the first confirmed execution of a demonstrator from the January protests took place. Twenty-year-old Ali Heydari was hanged in Mashhad.
They’ve executed 20-year-old Ali Heydari.
Arrested in Mashhad on Thursday, January 8th, he was hanged today by the Islamic Republic without a trial or even access to a lawyer. His family was kept completely in the dark; no official word on where he was held or his condition… pic.twitter.com/jBCbJ6aVeO
— پریسا (@longlosthills) February 9, 2026
The regime is showing clear signs of fatigue. Last week, Khamenei broke a 37-year tradition by not attending the annual meeting of air force chiefs – the first time this has happened since 1989. His absence is interpreted as a sign of weakness, possibly health problems. In return, he later appeared in staged photos.
In order to control the narrative, the regime has continued with the mass arrests of reformists, journalists and critics. President Pezeshkian has publicly apologised for the violence and mass executions – and admitted that the regime fell short.
One sign of fatigue is Khamenei’s long absences and staged appearances, another is the president’s public apology (“great sorrow”) for the extreme violence and the many deaths. The regime is also showing signs of internal division. Reformists within the system are arrested. There are reports of desertions and assassinations.
🚨 Breaking: An assassination occurred moments ago in central Tehran, Iran.
▪︎ Iranian media sources report that the victim was a senior commander in the Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC). pic.twitter.com/6USGgMozny
— The Middle East (@A_M_R_M1) February 11, 2026
The regime is still unable to deal with the economy. They have hinted at diluting highly enriched uranium in return for sanctions relief – which may indicate economic pressure. The mullahs are allegedly moving their money out of the country.
U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent:
We have seen the Iranian leadership wiring money out of the country like crazy.
The rats are leaving the ship.
That is a good sign that they know the end may be near. https://t.co/iRd4uIQZWD pic.twitter.com/GTpopHrK95
— Open Source Intel (@Osint613) February 5, 2026
The regime is not facing immediate collapse, but is under more pressure than in a long time. It remains in control of the security apparatus (IRGC) and managed to mobilise the hard core for the anniversary celebrations.
The regime claims between 23-26 MILLION people showed up to their rally today.
But footage coming out of Iran tells an entire different story.
Most cities reported crowd sizes of a few dozen, in major cities only a few thousand.
pic.twitter.com/8sLMGQt395— Throwback Iran (@Tarikh_Eran) February 11, 2026
Many Protestants are frightened, exhausted and traumatised by the internet blackout, mass arrests and killings. But the diaspora is very active.
🔴 DISTURBING:
Footage from Tehran at the height of the massacre shows regime thugs directly opening fire on pedestrians simply walking past them.
An ongoing, horrific bloodbath.
Tomorrow, Witkoff is meeting with the genociders’ foreign minister for tea and laughs. pic.twitter.com/fiScccZUrn
— 𝐍𝐢𝐨𝐡 𝐁𝐞𝐫𝐠 ♛ ✡︎ (@NiohBerg) February 5, 2026
Internationally, Trump has threatened military action and asked US citizens to leave Iran, but is prioritising negotiations on the nuclear programme. Netanyahu is pushing for a hard line – no enrichment, missile restrictions and an end to support for Hezbollah/Houthi/Hamas. Israel is sceptical that negotiations will succeed.
… But the UN is a staunch supporter
United Nations Secretary-General António Guterres sent the Islamic Republic an official message of congratulations on the 47th anniversary of the Islamic Revolution on 11 February 1979.
The message, published on the UN website and shared by Iranian state media, reads in part:
– On this historic day, I send my warmest congratulations to the Islamic Republic of Iran, its people and government. The United Nations stands ready to work with Iran for peace, stability and sustainable development in the region and globally.
BREAKING: The UN Secretary-General congratulated the Islamic Republic of Iran on the anniversary of the Islamic Revolution.
Let me repeat: the head of a supposedly humanitarian and peace organisation praised a terrorist regime just weeks after it slaughtered over 40,000… pic.twitter.com/JQMAyi9j0e
— Hen Mazzig (@HenMazzig) February 11, 2026
Critics point out the absurdity of the UN “peace organisation” sending warm congratulations to a regime that has just killed tens of thousands of people protesting against it – congratulations to the regime behind one of the bloodiest crackdowns on civilian protests in recent memory.
Guterres’ spokesman has subsequently joined hands. He claimed that the congratulations are “in line with protocol for national days” and do not imply acceptance of the country’s domestic politics.
NO JOKE: The Islamic regime in Iran has just been elected as Vice-Chair of the U.N. Commission for Social Development, whose priority theme will be promoting democracy, gender equality, and ensuring tolerance and non-violence.
Chair: “I hear no objection.” pic.twitter.com/mKdYfHVv6R
— UN Watch (@UNWatch) February 11, 2026
As a reminder, Norway recently invited the Ambassador of the Islamic State to dinner with the King.
Representative of the Iranian regime invited to dinner at the Royal Palace last night
The Palace, like the UN, has emphasised that the invitation is a diplomatic practice and not a political signal of support for the domestic killings.
Massive memorial ceremonies in the making</h3
In Iran, it is customary to mark 40 days after a person’s death with a memorial ceremony called “chehelom” (from Persian “chehel” = forty). It is an important part of the mourning rituals following the funeral itself – and Ashura, which comes ten days after the death.
Historically, chehelom has repeatedly been used as a platform for protests.
- During the 1978-1979 Islamic Revolution, 40-day commemorations for slain protesters led to new protests and a chain reaction that helped overthrow the Shah.
- During the Mahsa Amini protests of 2022, chehelom ceremonies for those killed often evolved into large demonstrations where people chanted slogans against the regime.
40-day commemorations for those killed on 8 and 9 January fall on 17 and 18 February. If people gather to commemorate their dead as tradition dictates, it could quickly develop into new demonstrations. This worries the regime.
The Chehelom tradition is one of the few “legal” occasions to gather in public in Iran.
Soon it will be 40 days since innocent people in Iran were slaughtered. Thousands have died, and the true numbers are still unknown. The killing continues while the world stays silent. President Trump, it’s on your shoulders to carry out your promises to the Iranian people. Every… pic.twitter.com/iiQ1aAHfDk
— FrosterRay (@FrosterRay1) February 7, 2026
In the meantime, young children continue to hope that daddy will come home again…,
#Iran Must-see. Heartbreaking video. 😔🖤 A little boy speaks to his father, killed by the Iranian regime during the recent uprisings. He says while crying: “Dad, when will you be coming home”? “I miss you so much”..
This is the reality we are confronting. Tens of thousands… pic.twitter.com/i2UUQeNkn7
— Pouya BMT (@BMT_FreeIran) February 4, 2026
… and to grieve like Malika does after losing her twin brother.
Malika is mourning her twin brother ,Taha Soleimani , who was murdered by lslamic regime!
— Azat (@AzatAlsalim) February 5, 2026
We only hope to bring good news in the next Iran update – without promising exactly when it will arrive.
The protests in Iran, day 38: – We pray for the war to come and save us