We have repeatedly warned on the pages of *Documents* over the years: Immigration is in the process of destroying the country. It is happening gradually, bit by bit. But it is happening fast, and at an accelerating pace.
Statistics Norway’s (SSB) population forecasts have for years systematically underestimated the strong growth in the immigrant population. The errors in these estimates have been so large and so consistent that it may seem as though the figures are being manipulated to prevent us from realising what is happening until it is too late.
Immigration is in the process of changing Norway beyond recognition. The growth in the non-Western Muslim immigrant population is undermining the welfare state and increasing the tax burden. Unless immigration policy is revised, it is entirely justified to speak of population replacement. There is no room for debate. It is simple maths.
Statistics Norway (SSB), however, seems at last to have changed tack. Or at least partly so. Whether our pointing out of the systematic under-reporting has had any influence remains to be seen. Statistics Norway’s latest forecasts now paint a somewhat more realistic picture of expected future immigration.
But it shows that whilst Swedish and, in particular, Danish immigration policies have been significantly tightened, non-Western immigration to Norway continues unabated. Nettavisen has, in two articles and in an editorial, unexpectedly and commendably finally highlighted this.
Without addressing the consequences, at least the realisation of what is about to happen to Norway’s demographics seems to be becoming mainstream. When even Nettavisen acknowledges it, it must be called progress. And it is a start.
As Nettavisen wrote in an editorial a short while ago: ‘Carl I. Hagen has been right all along.’ It took a mere 35 years before anyone in the narrative-driven press was willing to admit it!
Statistics Norway (SSB) expects growth in non-Western immigration to Norway, in absolute terms, to be greater than in Sweden and more than five times higher than in Denmark. Let that sink in. It is startling. And this is what the Nordic statistical offices themselves have concluded. SSB is certainly not exaggerating.
Over the next 14 years, between 2026 and 2040, SSB expects a 36 per cent increase in the number of first-time non-Western immigrants to Norway, whilst the Swedish statistical authority expects a 12 per cent increase in Sweden. In other words, the increase in Norway is three times as large, in a population that is only half the size.
Compared with Denmark, the difference is even greater. Statistics Denmark expects 40,000 non-Western first-time immigrants, whilst Statistics Norway expects 211,000 over the same period – more than five times as many.
And bear in mind that these are only first-time immigrants. Added to this are family reunification, the far higher birth rates amongst the non-Western Muslim immigrant population, and Norway’s liberal practices regarding the granting of citizenship and permanent residence.
Whilst Denmark has long since put the brakes on, and Sweden is doing so now, this will lead to a demographic replacement in Norway within a few decades unless politicians see sense.
The 169 argue that we are bound by international agreements. Everyone must now realise that this is nonsense. Sweden and Denmark are both members of the UN and the EU and have acceded to exactly the same international agreements. So has Japan. Japan has no immigration whatsoever.
Furthermore, the right to asylum does not presuppose that asylum seekers will be granted permanent residence or citizenship. On the contrary, it presupposes that they will return to their home country as soon as conditions there permit.
It should also be noted that Statistics Norway (SSB) itself has already had to revise its forecast upwards. In its 2024 projection, the agency expected 903,000 first-generation immigrants from this group of countries by 2040. The estimate now exceeds one million. This will probably also eventually turn out to be a gross understatement.
As early as 2030, the forecast is 47,000 higher than it was two years ago, and by 2040 it has been pushed up even further. The government says it is tightening the rules. The projections tell a different story. In other words, politicians are still pulling the wool over our eyes. This is nothing new. It’s becoming a pattern.
For years, Statistics Norway’s main scenario has lagged behind actual non-Western immigration. Every major wave – the asylum policy of the 1990s, the family reunification that followed, labour migration after EU enlargement, Syria and then Ukraine – has forced Statistics Norway to constantly revise the figures upwards.
The models look backwards and are based on historical figures and current regulations, assuming that policy will remain more or less as it is and that nothing unexpected will happen. But it does, all the time. Next up will be a new wave of immigration from Gaza. Mark my words.
When networks, family reunification and new crises drive the figures up, the correction will come in the next round, not in the one used to reassure voters. The fact that the 2026 figures are once again higher than the 2024 figures is not a sign that the uncertainty has gone. It is a sign that even the latest upward revision may turn out to be too low.
From 1980 to 2025, the growth in the non-Western immigrant population has risen from 30,000–35,000 people – less than one per cent – to 610,000–695,000, 11–12.5 per cent of the population. In some districts of Oslo, 70–80 per cent of children in nursery schools have an immigrant background. This is not a forecast. It has already happened.
And it is amongst children and young people that we see it first. In Norway, 1 in 5 residents is an immigrant or the child of an immigrant. In France, the figure is 1 in 4. One-third of children under the age of 8 in France have at least one parent who was not born in France. 25 per cent of all children born in France today are given an Arabic or Muslim name. It has been a long time since ‘Mohammad’ became the most popular boy’s name in Oslo. That happened in 2007. This represents an indisputable demographic shift.
It is from these non-Western immigrant groups that radical Islam recruits. They have formed a coalition with the radical, and at times violent, left wing in the ‘red-green alliance’ of communists and Islamists who are leading the disorganised youths in the riots we are now seeing unfold in France.
In other words, the immigration crisis is beginning to take on a political dimension, as a result of the immigrant population reaching critical mass, and as a result of the coalition with the left, a coalition that extends well into the ‘woke’ Right in Norway. This is by no means limited to France.
Demographic trends in Belgium, the Netherlands, the UK, Germany, Italy, Spain and Sweden are very similar, and Norway is not far behind. David Betz, a professor of war studies and civil wars at King’s College London, has estimated that the risk of civil war breaking out in the UK within five years is greater than 50 per cent. He made this statement on GB-News in 2025.
Civil war will come, not in the form of invading military forces, but in the form of Islamist racial uprisings and leaderless youth riots orchestrated by Islamists and radical left-wingers, involving vandalism and attacks on civilian infrastructure, and likely with counter-attacks from the native working class, who, through taxes and benefits, are forced to bear the costs and disadvantages of immigration.
Machiavelli wrote about this over 500 years ago in Discorsi, in which he pointed out that mass migration and population displacement are a far more effective and dangerous form of territorial expansion than conventional wars of conquest, which merely seek obedience and allow people and property to remain.
He also described precisely the strategy that radical Islam follows for gradual territorial expansion through cunning, deception and the ability to coexist with the indigenous population (taqiyya) until the true believers have become numerous enough and have achieved sufficient critical mass to introduce Sharia law.
What makes immigration a problem is not the numbers alone. It is who is coming. Western immigration is unproblematic. Here, labour force participation is high and the burden on the welfare state is low. And most people return to their home countries once their work permits have expired. The same applies to a large extent to labour migration from Eastern Europe as well.
The problem is non-Western Muslim immigration. Most of these people have little or no education. Labour force participation is extremely low. This results in low value creation, low tax revenue, high consumption of social benefits and a significant strain on public infrastructure. It undermines the welfare state and increases the tax burden on those in work.
For immigrants from Pakistan, Somalia, Syria, Iraq, Afghanistan, Iran, Turkey and Morocco, the actual labour force participation rate is estimated to be only around 30 per cent, compared with around 80 per cent among the working population.
This represents a loss of over 150,000 full-time equivalents. This represents between 150 and 225 billion in lost value creation, between 60 and 90 billion in lost tax revenue, and an increase of between 30 and 60 billion in social security payments each year.
In 2025, around four out of five kroner of social assistance went to people of non-Norwegian origin. This amounts to over 400 billion a year – not far off the withdrawals from the Petroleum Fund, which stood at 460 billion in 2024.
The consequences of continuing along this path are not difficult to deduce from these same figures. The population without an immigrant background will decline slightly over the next few decades, whilst, according to Statistics Norway (SSB), the population with an immigrant background will increase by over half a million by 2050 to around 1.8 million out of a total population of approximately 6.1 million. It is the group of Muslims from Asia and Africa that is growing the most. There is no reason to believe that Statistics Norway is exaggerating.
This can rightly be called a demographic shift: not a sudden break, but a gradual shift in which the historical majority ceases to grow and has already begun to stagnate, whilst a new population group of different origin is growing exponentially as a result of immigration, family reunification and far higher birth rates.
The welfare state was built on the premise that almost everyone of working age who was able to work did so full-time and paid tax for several decades before drawing a pension. A policy that allows non-Western, largely Muslim, immigration to replace both the population base and the tax base is, of course, unsustainable. The bill is passed on to those who work. This will naturally lead to unrest, and in the worst case, civil war.
Denmark has chosen to put the brakes on. Sweden has begun to reverse course. The 169 in Norway are doing neither. They are undeterred in continuing the same policy, which for more than three decades has forced Statistics Norway’s forecasts to be repeatedly revised upwards retrospectively, after voters have been misled into believing that things are now going so much better.
