If Marine Le Pen wins the presidential election in April, 46 per cent of Muslims in France are considering leaving the country. This is according to a new poll for the magazine Marianne.
The survey was published on Wednesday, six months before the first round of voting. The Ifop institute surveyed 9,689 people aged over 18 via an online panel between 25 and 30 September.
Among all French people, 21 per cent say they are considering emigrating if Le Pen becomes president. Among Muslims, the proportion is more than twice as high.
As many as 81 per cent of Muslim respondents believe that a victory for the Rassemblement National (RN) would lead to more attacks and greater discrimination against Muslims. 27 per cent say they would, in that case, conceal their religious affiliation.
Nor is it only Muslims who are considering leaving. According to Causeur, a significant proportion of Jewish respondents also say they are considering leaving the country in the event of an RN victory. Causeur believes this may be due to fears of unrest following such an election rather than fear of the RN itself.
Le Pen is leading the polls and has been under constant attack from the authorities. In July, the Paris Court of Appeal convicted her of embezzlement of public funds in the case concerning the party’s assistants in the European Parliament. At the same time, the court ruled that the unconditional disqualification from standing for election had already been served, and she is therefore eligible to stand. She has appealed to the Court of Cassation, which is expected to rule on the case in early 2027.
The poll comes after an autumn in which the hijab has once again become a contentious issue. In September, RN politician Jean-Philippe Tanguy proposed banning the hijab in public spaces. Bruno Retailleau of Les Républicains called the proposal demagogic and populist.
The Ifop poll shows that 53 per cent of those surveyed are against the hijab in public spaces. Among young people born between 1997 and 2010, 56 per cent say they have no objection to it. Le Pen herself has stated that she does not intend to ban the hijab as soon as she comes to power, but will put the issue to a referendum.
The poll also reveals a split on the left. Jean-Luc Mélenchon wants to abolish the old church regime in Alsace-Moselle, which provides state support to certain religious communities but not to Islam. 64 per cent of all respondents support the proposal. Among Mélenchon’s own voters, the figure is 49 per cent.
“Voters for La France insoumise seem to have become hostile to any measure promoting secularism,” says François Kraus, deputy director of Ifop’s opinion research department.
According to Kraus, these voters automatically view such measures as anti-Islam.
The figures spread rapidly on X on Wednesday. British activist Tommy Robinson shared the story with a brief comment.
– Couldn’t there be a better campaign message?, wrote Robinson, adding an aeroplane emoji.
