ZDF’s exit poll from the state election in Saxony-Anhalt suggests that the AfD has become by far the largest party, with 44 per cent of the vote. That may be enough to win an outright majority in the state parliament, but only the counting of the votes will show whether that is the case.

Graphic: ZDF

In any event, the election is a triumph for Ulrich Siegmund, whom the news magazine Der Spiegel had proclaimed ‘Germany’s most dangerous man’, and for the entire party.

ARD’s projection even shows 44.5 per cent for the AfD.

Whether that is enough for an outright majority or not will also depend on whether Sahra Wagenknecht’s left-wing populist party (BSW) ultimately clears the electoral threshold, as ARD’s projection suggests. But the party leader has already stated that she has no intention of taking part in any anti-AfD coalition, even though she is far removed from the AfD politically.

ZDF estimates that the AfD will fall one seat short of an outright majority in the state parliament, which has 83 members.

Graphic: Frankfurter Allgemeine

The only thing that is certain is that it will not be possible to cobble together any other majority unless all the other parties in the state parliament cooperate – CDU, SPD, Die Linke and the Greens – but BSW may therefore get in the way.

The CDU has also maintained a ‘firewall’ against the far-left party Die Linke, but may find itself forced to tear it down.

In any event, the political situation in Saxony-Anhalt has been turned upside down compared with the 2021 election. The CDU has been halved and the AfD is almost twice as large. The two have swapped places as the largest and second-largest parties, but the AfD is much larger than the CDU was.