In Germany, the Union parties received a real cold shower in June, when a YouGov opinion poll showed support for the AfD at 29 per cent, compared with 20 per cent for the CDU/CSU.
Now INSA’s weekly poll for Bild produces the same results.
The AfD thus equals its record nine-percentage-point lead over the largest governing party in German opinion polls.
Sonntagsfrage zur Bundestagswahl • INSA/BamS: AfD 29 % | CDU/CSU 20 % | GRÜNE 13 % | SPD 12 % | DIE LINKE 10 % | BSW 4 % | FDP 4 % | Sonstige 8 %
➤ Übersicht: https://t.co/Gzilw3J3L9
➤ Verlauf: https://t.co/vnhJf7ub9S pic.twitter.com/Cc6MQhS85k— Wahlrecht.de (@Wahlrecht_de) August 29, 2026
Together with the Social Democratic Party (SPD), which is also in government, Friedrich Merz’s team has support of only 32 per cent – less than one in three voters, and an extraordinarily weak result for a government.
This boosts the AfD’s morale shortly before some particularly important political tests of strength:
The timing could hardly be more unfavourable for the CDU: In one week, there are elections in Saxony-Anhalt (6 September), and two weeks later Berlin and Mecklenburg-Vorpommern follow (20 September).
If elections to the Bundestag were held today, the CDU/CSU, SPD and the Greens would together secure a parliamentary majority by the narrowest of margins.
One week before the state election in Saxony-Anhalt, Germany’s former Chancellor Angela Merkel, whose policies have in practice paved the way for the AfD’s rise, is making an attempt to stem the advance of Alice Weidel’s team.
– It is now necessary to fight for German democracy for the first time in several decades, Merkel said on Saturday at a political event in Berlin, according to Die Welt – with a poorly concealed reference to Nazism.
But the former Chancellor appears resigned:
With regard to the election campaign in Saxony-Anhalt, Merkel said that the AfD had to some extent managed to “shape all our conversations from morning to night”. People no longer knew what the other parties actually wanted.
