Misery is without end for CDU/CSU in German opinion polls. For the first time, the Union parties trail AfD by a full nine percentage points.
In a new YouGov poll, Alice Weidel’s party receives 29 per cent support (+1) against 20 per cent for CDU/CSU (-2). For these parties, this is respectively the highest and lowest result ever recorded in YouGov polling.
Sonntagsfrage von YouGov zur Bundestagswahl: AfD 29 % | CDU/CSU 20 % | GRÜNE 14 % | SPD 12 % | DIE LINKE 12 % | FDP 5 % | BSW 4 % | Sonstige 5 %
➤ Übersicht: https://t.co/Gzilw3J3L9
➤ Verlauf: https://t.co/Zh9Dkcic7w pic.twitter.com/pXbgC61zbV— Wahlrecht.de (@Wahlrecht_de) June 16, 2026
As a result, Friedrich Merz’s governing party and its Bavarian sister party have lost almost one third of their support compared with the Bundestag election in February 2025, when the Union parties received 28.5 per cent against 20.8 per cent for AfD.
The trends emerging from the overall picture across all opinion polls show that the roles of Germany’s largest and second-largest party have been reversed since the election.
Source: Poll of Polls. Graphic: Politico.
The YouGov poll is likely to create fresh unrest and dissatisfaction within the governing coalition parties, writes Tagesspiegel.
In the poll, SPD stands at 12 per cent (May: 13 per cent; the 2025 election: 16.4 per cent). Among the Social Democrats, too, there is noticeable internal dissatisfaction with the course of the red-black coalition and the conduct of party leaders Bärbel Bas and Lars Klingbeil.
The far left is benefiting from the SPD’s difficulties in government:
The Greens stand at 14 per cent (+1), Die Linke at 12 per cent (+1).
The governing parties are impatient to stage a recovery:
Within CDU/CSU and SPD, there is an expectation that leaders of the black-red government will present the long-announced reform package as soon as possible.
Germany’s power elite is biting its nails ahead of the state election in Saxony-Anhalt, where AfD is polling above 40 per cent and has a certain chance of securing an outright majority in the state parliament.
Graphic: dawum.de
6 September is less than three months away, and the combination of summer holidays and bad news is complicating the situation for the establishment. The SPD even risks falling below the electoral threshold in the state.