Solar energy company Scatec collapsed on the Oslo Stock Exchange. Almost a quarter of its market capitalisation was wiped out. Despite the best energy market conditions on record, the company was forced to revise its forecasts downwards. All the analysts covering the company were caught off guard.
Scatec shares took a brutal beating on the stock exchange on Thursday. With a fall of 23.9 per cent, the share price closed at 76.85 kroner. Almost a quarter of its market capitalisation vanished.
And this in a record-breaking energy market, with the price of oil creeping above 110 dollars a barrel. And with electricity and gas prices in Europe at levels not seen since 2022, when the war in Ukraine began.
The following chart shows the share price’s performance on the Oslo Stock Exchange on 22 October:
Scatec share price on 22 October 2026.
Source: Oslo Stock Exchange, DNB
The share price plummeted from 101 kroner to 76.85 kroner.
Earnings warning
The reason is that the company has revised down its earnings forecast for 2026. The forecast for operating profit before depreciation and amortisation (EBITDA = Earnings Before Interest, Tax, Depreciation and Amortisation) was revised downwards from the range of 3.6–3.9 to the range of 3.3–3.6 billion kroner, representing a downward revision of NOK 300 million.
The company cites five specific reasons:
- Ukraine: Russian attacks are disrupting operations at Scatec’s power station and delaying repairs to the facility, which was hit in 2025. The war is also affecting country risk and the outlook for electricity prices.
- The Philippines: The regulator has suspended the reserve market for ancillary services. A new market structure is to be investigated, creating uncertainty regarding future revenues.
- South Africa: The commissioning of the Mogobe battery storage facility has been delayed because the state-owned power company Eskom has not completed the grid connection.
- Pakistan: An expected adjustment to the electricity tariff is likely to be delayed.
- Currency: Currencies in several of Scatec’s markets have weakened against the Norwegian krone, which reduces reported EBITDA measured in kroner.
All caught off guard
But the solar power company Scatec has been the brokerage firms’ favourite. They have published one ‘buy’ recommendation after another.
The latest was Fearnley Securities, which as recently as 14 October issued a ‘buy’ recommendation with a price target of 135 kroner. Two days earlier, DNB Carnegie had set a price target of 130 kroner.
The following table shows the brokerage firms’ recommendations and price targets over the last six months.
It is doubtful whether a 8 per cent downward revision of EBITDA would lead analysts to settle on a share price of 76 kroner. There are strong indications that the share price collapse is also driven by uncertainty as to whether the aforementioned problems will persist and affect earnings into 2027.
The Norwegian National Insurance Scheme suffered the biggest losses
Scatec’s market capitalisation is NOK 15.8 billion. During the share price collapse, nearly five billion in value was wiped out. The largest shareholder is the Norwegian National Insurance Fund, with 8.81 per cent of the shares.
Next comes Equinor, with 8.05 per cent.
Among the four largest shareholders, we also find DNB Asset Management and Storebrand Asset Management, which manage equity funds for the general public.
