In two weeks’ time, a new record low will be set for the power reservoirs in Southern Norway, unless torrential rain arrives during the 17 May weekend and at Pentecost. The power reservoirs declined during the past week, whereas they would normally have been replenished by the spring flood. But the amount of snow in the mountains is record low, and that produces very little spring flooding.
During the past week, the filling level in the power reservoirs in Southern Norway fell from 14.1 to 13.9 TWh (billion kilowatt-hours). A decline of 0.2 TWh may perhaps not sound particularly dramatic. But we should have been in the middle of the spring flood. The curve for median reservoir filling based on figures from the past 30 years should have produced an increase of 1.9 TWh. Instead, the filling level fell by 0.2 TWh.
Reservoir filling (TWh) for week 19 in Southern Norway. Maximum, minimum, median and the filling curve for 2026. Source: NVE
The negative deviation of 2.1 TWh, when the filling level already lies 6.7 TWh below the median, means that we are approaching a new record low in reservoir filling in Southern Norway.
If we add the modest amount of snow in the mountains, which NVE measures as “the snow’s energy content”, and which has remained at a historic minimum throughout the winter, the figures are dramatic. Or they may become so in the near future if precipitation fails to arrive.
Snow energy content (GWh) for week 19, maximum, minimum, median and the 2026 curve. Source: NVE
These figures were published on Wednesday 13 May. On Tuesday, we wrote about the same issue based on the previous week’s figures, in light of the revised national budget.
Revidert nasjonalbudsjett: Tar med den ene hånden og gir med den andre
It appears that low electricity prices will become a thing of the past. With the “Norway price”, households will notice little. The government can present itself as generous by paying the difference up to market price, using money it brought in last year.
Businesses, however, will face these electricity prices head-on. This therefore constitutes a transfer from broad-based business activity to the power producers, which are 90 per cent owned by the state and municipalities, and this may be regarded as an additional tax.
A man-made power crisis
The power system we have in Norway, painstakingly built up with power reservoirs in order to ensure sufficient electricity during periods of low precipitation, has now become more weather-dependent than ever before. And it is man-made.
The path towards the precarious power situation in Southern Norway has been created by the politicians through energy and climate policy, where two factors in particular are decisive.
Net exports:
The situation could have been diametrically opposite. What could have been security of supply today was exported last year. Net exports of electricity out of Norway amounted to 22.8 TWh. That was a new historic record, and it was intentional, entirely in line with the EEA rules and in accordance with the EU energy agency ACER.
Climate-policy waste of electricity:
The second factor is higher electricity consumption than necessary because of climate targets that appear increasingly utopian and, not least, as a navel-gazing Norwegian/European phenomenon.
The most significant form of climate-policy waste of electricity today is the electrification of oil and gas production, where electricity consumption is supplied from land rather than generated with self-produced gas at the production site. This consumes more than 11 TWh every year and is set to increase in the future, including through the electrification of the LNG facility at Melkøya, which will require 3.6 TWh per year from the grid.
Before Norwegian oil and gas production begins to decline for natural reasons, electrification is expected to consume 20 TWh, according to Statnett’s forecasts.
Climate-policy waste of electricity consists of several pillars, including the push for electric cars. But what is expected to consume vast amounts of electricity in the future is hydrogen production through electrolysis, which is an inefficient use of energy and extremely expensive.
Norway has therefore suffered harm because Norwegian energy and climate policy has been designed by people without scientific competence.
The only ones who profit from this
As mentioned in the attached article, Statkraft, which accounts for half of Norwegian power production, earned more than 11 billion kroner before tax.
The only ones who benefit from this policy are employees of Statkraft, Statnett, other power producers, Fornybar Norge, Enova and various consultants who promote the basis for an increasingly mindless energy and climate policy.