There is an abundance of theories, predictions and proposals about what Trump will do in the war against the Iranian regime.

In the United States, the Democratic Party, with few exceptions, hopes that Trump will have to withdraw with his tail between his legs, and like the media they do not believe what the large majority of the Iranian diaspora in the West says about Iranian public opinion and the will to resist the executioner regime. They believe the executioners and fervently hope that they will win, because they hate everything Trump is trying to achieve – something that constitutes a strategic feather in the cap for the mullahs. Every day they remain in power, they will be celebrated by Trump-haters.

Who is to be called the winner depends on how one chooses to define a victory. Is one victorious when, like the Israelis and the Americans, one can bomb the Iranian regime’s military installations, weapons depots, political leaders and command centres to pieces, or is victory to be defined strategically?

If one looks at historical experience, one cannot force an enemy to accept defeat by bombing him. The Allies attempted this against Nazi Germany during the Second World War, and it failed. Later, the United States attempted to bomb from the air in Vietnam, where the communist rulers, despite American superiority, ended up drawing the longest straw. Strategically, it is immaterial how great damage a regime must suffer, as long as it can remain in power. And if the Iranian rulers – i.e. the Revolutionary Guard – survive the Israeli-American offensive, they will, to the jubilation of the Trump-haters, declare that they have prevailed.

With great fluency, the American military expert Professor Robert Pape of the University of Chicago explains that Trump has fallen into an Iranian trap. On the tactical level, he may boast of brilliant victories, but strategically considered he will suffer defeat. The cunning mullahs have, after all, long since prepared themselves. It may well be that Israel and the United States have bombed Iran’s nuclear facilities, but Pape claims to know that Allah’s men have hidden their enriched uranium around the country, where Israel and the United States cannot find it. When the United States and Israel soon tire of waging war, the Islamic fanatics will be able to resume their nuclear weapons programme.

Professor Pape avoids addressing the murderous nature of the Iranian regime and 47 years of promoting terror throughout the world. Nor does he explain what the United States and Israel should have done to prevent the mullahs from acquiring nuclear weapons. Various American presidents have tried negotiations, concessions, appeasement, sweet talk and – in the case of Barack Hussein Obama – billions of dollars, which the mullah regime has used for rearmament and financing of terror. If one believes that Allah’s men in Tehran care about the welfare of the Iranian people, one has understood nothing. The regime’s only priority is to remain in power and by all means suppress and kill anyone who does not bow to Allah’s will.

When I interviewed Crown Prince Reza Pahlavi in 2008, I asked him whether he agreed with the assessment that all acts of terror in the world are either carried out by Iranian fanatics, or that they at least have prior knowledge of them. That he could confirm.

When I was subjected to an assassination attempt in 2013, an exiled Iranian friend and long-time activist explained that she was certain it had been arranged by the Islamic Republic via intermediaries.

Several otherwise serious observers raise the possibility that Trump must enter into a compromise with the Revolutionary Guard, whose remaining members constitute the real power base in the mullah regime. This applies, among others, to the usually sensible journal First Things, which is Christian (Catholic) and should therefore take an interest in theology and attempt to understand Islam. The editorial staff must therefore know that one cannot enter into compromises with Islamic fanatics. They will sign anything, and before the ink is dry, they will do as they usually do.

Professor Steve Turley, who is usually a supporter of Trump, states in his latest podcast that the Revolutionary Guard is constructed to be able to survive any attack. While President Trump and Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth proclaim messages about everything Israel and the United States have destroyed, the Revolutionary Guard will prepare for low-intensity warfare and rely on smaller military strikes and support from Western media.

Many in the Western debate claim that Trump had no plan before he embarked on his daring war enterprise. Of course he did. His military advisers have undoubtedly also described the expected consequences, namely that the Revolutionary Guard would disperse into numerous scattered formations, which could operate without any nationwide leadership, but conduct a war of attrition on the basis of standing orders.

Experience nevertheless shows that one can only hope to conduct a low-intensity war of attrition if one can rely on support from a sympathetic civilian population willing to conceal and supply the combatants. This is demonstrated by several successful guerrilla wars, from China to Algeria and Vietnam.

Ultimately, the war against Iran will be decided by the Iranian people.