For the outside world it appears incomprehensible: Iran has attacked 12 countries in the region, even countries with which it has a friendly relationship, such as Iraq. But there is a strategy behind it, analysts in Times of Israel write. Iran has deliberately chosen chaos as a strategy. They believe they can increase the price of the war so that neighbouring countries place pressure on the United States and Israel to bring it to an end.

The game becomes clear once one sees through it. On Friday evening and during the night Iran attacked oil fields in Iraq. Azerbaijan has withdrawn its diplomats. Saudi Arabia may join the war.

An oil facility in Iraq was struck by a drone for the second time on Friday. Baghdad airport was subjected to an attack just after midnight, sources told AFP

– There were a number of attacks with drones and missiles against the airport, a security official told AFP, adding that ambulances were sent to the scene. The airport area houses, among other things, a military base and a facility connected to the United States embassy.

Then Iran will have achieved the exact opposite of what it wanted.

The region may align itself more closely with the United States and nearer to Israel: the regime may become totally isolated and condemned to downfall.

Iran’s fundamental strategy is to create fear of the dangers of an expanded war, in the hope that the United States’ allies will place sufficient pressure on them to halt the campaign. A prolonged conflict, together with American and Israeli losses, may also work in Iran’s favour.
The problem is that the strategy of bombarding the neighbours may also backfire.

The reason for the chaos strategy is that the regime sees it as its only possibility of survival. They are betting that they possess the endurance and strength to ride out the war. But they have not calculated the willpower of the American president. It is unthinkable that Trump would lose heart halfway through. Then all his enemies would descend upon him. Everyone knows it.

Iran’s first priority is to emerge from the war with its state institutions intact, said Ellie Geranmayeh, deputy director of the Middle East and North Africa programme at the European Council on Foreign Relations.

“Iran is raising the costs of this American military campaign and regionalising it from the outset, as they promised they would do if America started the war with Iran again,” she said.

The United States joined Israel in June last year at the end of a 12-day war, with nuclear enrichment facilities as targets. Iran claims that its programme is peaceful, even though its authorities have threatened to develop a bomb while enriching uranium to nearly weapons grade, denying inspectors access and expanding its ballistic missile programme.

Iran’s strategy is clear, but then all those who inflate the costs of the war become Iran’s collaborators. The Democrats in the United States are Iran’s errand boys. The same applies to liberal media such as NRK. It does not require much imagination to see the pattern.

The media do not report that Iran in negotiations with Steve Witkoff openly boasted that they possessed 530 kilograms of enriched uranium, enough to produce 11 atomic bombs.

Iran has begun excavating new facilities deep in the ground, inaccessible to opponents. What authorities have a need for uranium deep inside mountains if it is for peaceful purposes?

Iran showed its intentions somewhat too clearly, but the liberal media do not report it.

Those who say Trump is unpredictable and reckless in a war serve the enemy’s cause. They point to the consequences of the war for the oil market, aviation, shipping traffic and place the blame on him. They speak against better knowledge. They play Iran’s game.

Yama Wolasmal repeats again and again that no one understands what Trump intended with the war and where he is heading. That is pure disinformation.

Iran’s leaders believe that by inflicting losses and disrupting energy production in order to drive up oil and gas prices, America’s allies or a restless public at home will pressure United States President Donald Trump to yield.

“The Iranians are essentially betting on exhausting him and his allies to a point where they will in practice seek a diplomatic way out,” said Geranmayeh. Trump is unpredictable, said Geranmayeh, but for the moment he appears to be pressing for “unconditional surrender to his demands, rather than a negotiated solution”.

Normally the parties are expected to rally behind the president in wartime. But the Democrats do not do so. They continue to attack Trump from all directions.

Support stands at 76 per cent. If Trump manages to end the war within eight weeks he will emerge strengthened. But the war should preferably not drag on.

Iran is already paying a high price.

The Iranian response has spared no one in the region, not even Oman, which mediated in the last round of nuclear negotiations and for decades has maintained a close relationship with Iran after the country helped the late Sultan Qaboos bin Said to suppress a rebellion in the 1970s.
Last week, when the United States assembled warships in the region, Oman’s foreign minister hurried to Washington in a final attempt to keep the nuclear negotiations alive.
Since then Oman has been drawn into the conflict. An Omani port and ships off the coast have been attacked by Iranian rockets. Oman’s port in Duqm helped the aircraft carrier USS Abraham Lincoln with logistics prior to deployment.

Saudi Arabia, which has maintained a détente with Tehran since 2023, also came into the line of fire this week. The oil refinery in Ras Tanura has been attacked repeatedly, and the United States embassy in Riyadh was struck by drones – an embarrassing moment for Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman, who has worked to cultivate a close relationship with Trump.

Qatar and the United Arab Emirates, which also have close ties to Trump, have also been attacked repeatedly.

If Iran is to unleash chaos they depend on having sufficient rockets, drones and launchers. But the allies are also bombing the factories that produce them. With total air supremacy it is really only a matter of time before Iran becomes defenceless.

Foreign Minister Araghchi attempted to claim that Iran does not wish to strike states in the region, but American targets. This was categorically rejected by Qatar.

But after a telephone conversation with Araghchi on Wednesday, Qatar’s prime minister, Sheikh Mohammed bin Abdulrahman Al Thani, “categorically” rejected his claim that Iranian missiles were directed only at American interests and not at Qatar.

Many of the regime’s men already see the writing on the wall.

https://www.timesofisrael.com/irans-barrage-of-attacks-across-persian-gulf-shows-regional-chaos-key-to-its-strategy/