Swedish prisons are operating at 141 per cent capacity. The Swedish Prison and Probation Service (Kriminalvården) now warns that demand could rise to 34,000 places – four times the current level. The price tag: SEK 70 billion. The agency itself admits that it will not be able to achieve this before 2040 at the earliest.

The figures appear in the Swedish Prison and Probation Service’s capacity report, which was submitted to the Swedish government together with its budget documentation in March this year.

The official plan is to more than double the number of places in prisons and remand centres – from around 9,000 today to 19,500 by 2035. That means 11,000 new cells over nine years.

But that is not the whole picture.

The reforms that have not yet been scheduled

Sweden has adopted a series of tougher sentencing measures in the wake of the Tidö Agreement (Tidöavtalet). Several of the most significant have not yet entered into force. The government has written that the legislative amendments will apply “on the day determined by the government” (“den dag regeringen bestämmer”).

According to the Swedish Prison and Probation Service itself, the two measures with the greatest impact are stricter rules on parole and the remaining proposals from the Sentencing Reform Inquiry (Straffreformutredningen) – including harsher sentencing and the abolition of the presumption against imprisonment.

If these are included, demand rises to around 34,000 prison and remand places.

The agency would then require 36,000 full-time equivalent staff instead of 25,000. The cost is estimated at between SEK 65 and 70 billion, compared with SEK 40 billion under the current main scenario.

The Swedish Prison and Probation Service states bluntly that such a level cannot be achieved “before 2040 at the earliest” (“förrän tidigast 2040”).

Doubled in ten years

The development that has brought Sweden to this point has been dramatic.

From 2015 to October 2024, the number of inmates in Swedish prisons increased by 91 per cent. As of 1 October 2024, 8,206 people were incarcerated – 7,613 men and 593 women. That represented an increase of 17 per cent in a single year.

The number of newly admitted prisoners in 2024 was the highest in 28 years, that is, since 1996.

The result is chronic overcrowding. Last year, the average occupancy rate for permanent places was 141 per cent in prisons and 122 per cent in remand centres. This means that cells built for one man routinely accommodate two.

The Swedish Prison and Probation Service has 64 construction projects under way or under consideration, from Haparanda in the north to Trelleborg in the south. New prisons are being built in Kalmar, Kristianstad, Mariestad, Norrköping, Trelleborg and Värnamo.

The forecasts diverge

It is worth noting how unstable the projections are.

In the capacity report for 2025–2034, submitted in March last year, the Swedish Prison and Probation Service planned for 29,000 places by 2034. One of the scenarios in that report projected 37,500 prison inmates by 2034 – an increase of around 380 per cent.

One year later, the main plan calls for 19,500 places by 2035, with 34,000 identified as a possible requirement.

The agency now operates with four alternative forecasting scenarios for prisons and two for community corrections (frivården), precisely because the uncertainty is so great. The Swedish Prison and Probation Service itself writes that “the uncertainties in both infrastructure and staffing remain considerable” (“osäkerheterna i såväl lokal- som personalförsörjningen är dock stora”).

Tidskrift för Kriminalvård, which has long been critical of the expansion programme, calculates that if 2014 is taken as the baseline, the forecasts point towards an increase in the prison population of between four and seven times by 2034.

Violence is increasing

The pressure is being felt inside the prison walls. According to the Swedish Prison and Probation Service’s own annual report, the number of incidents involving violence and threats between inmates and directed at staff has increased tenfold over the past ten years.

At Hall Prison (Hallanstalten) outside Södertälje – Sweden’s largest maximum-security prison – the number of incidents increased by 280 per cent from 2023 to 2024.

At the same time, the inmates are becoming younger. Last year, 558 people aged between 15 and 17 were remanded in custody, 17 per cent more than the previous year. This year, the Swedish Prison and Probation Service is establishing 66 prison places for convicted offenders aged between 13 and 17, and a further 114 next year.

The proposal temporarily to lower the age of criminal responsibility to 13 was withdrawn by the government in June. Justice Minister Gunnar Strömmer justified the decision by citing a lack of support in the Riksdag.

Norway is moving in the opposite direction

The contrast with Norway is striking.

At the end of June, 3,070 people were incarcerated in Norwegian prisons. The occupancy rate stood at 90.9 per cent. While Sweden is putting two men into every cell, prison places in Norway are standing empty – even as the queue to serve custodial sentences continues to grow.

In December 2025, the queue consisted of 334 unconditional prison sentences awaiting execution. By May this year, it had risen to 522. The principal reason is that Oslo Prison closed in June for a major long-term refurbishment. The prison had capacity for 243 male inmates. Following the modernisation, it will have 140.

Norway is therefore struggling to fill the prison capacity it already has, while its neighbour to the east is building for a prison population that no one dares estimate with certainty.

The bill

The Swedish government has announced funding of SEK 28.5 billion for the Swedish Prison and Probation Service next year, SEK 30.8 billion in 2028 and SEK 33.5 billion in 2029. The agency believes these appropriations will be sufficient for the coming years.

Critics argue that the money is being spent incorrectly. Tidskrift för Kriminalvård has calculated that the operating costs of tripling the prison population are equivalent to the annual salaries of 12,000 teachers or social workers.

The Swedish Prison and Probation Service itself is more restrained, but points to the obvious: even with staffing density reduced by 30 per cent, the number of employees in prisons and remand centres will have to double. Less time per inmate means less work on preventing reoffending.