On 3 March, the Russian LNG vessel “Arctic Metagaz” was attacked by a drone off Libya. The crew had to be evacuated, and the ship drifted uncontrolled. The French outlet RFI revealed on Monday that there are 200 Ukrainians at three bases in western Libya who carry out drone attacks and are there to train Libyans in drone warfare.
“Arctic Metagaz” is part of the Russian shadow fleet. It is this that ensures that Moscow obtains hard currency and revenue. Russia is reacting to the fact that the war has now shifted to the Mediterranean and that the Ukrainians have been able to establish bases in the area. Russia itself has bases in North Africa.
The news opens entirely new perspectives on the war. It may spread to other continents.
The Ukrainians could not operate without assistance from British intelligence, the Russians claim.
The Libyan National Oil Corporation (NOC) dispatched a tugboat to secure the wrecked tanker, out of concern that it might leak gas into the sea or collide with an offshore oil platform in the Gulf of Sidra. The ship was still drifting on Tuesday, while a Libyan diving team attempted to salvage it. The Libyan navy also sent out a patrol boat to warn other vessels to avoid the hazardous wreck.
Moscow was quick to accuse Ukraine of having attacked the ship from Libya’s coast, allegedly with the assistance of British intelligence. RFI reported on Monday that Ukraine in fact has a presence in western Libya, and operates under a secret agreement concluded in October with the internationally recognised government in Tripoli. Libya has two competing governments, the other of which is based in the eastern city of Benghazi.
According to RFI, the agreement from October allowed Ukrainian forces to operate from the Air Defence Academy in Misrata, a naval base in Zawiya, and a coastal facility that is currently being upgraded with stronger fortifications and runways.
In exchange for these bases, Ukraine has agreed to train Libyan forces, particularly in the use of drones. Ukraine also has opportunities to sell weapons to the government in Tripoli and to invest in Libyan oil.
This is sensational news: Libya is divided in two as a result of NATO’s seven-month-long bombing campaign. The Ukrainians blow up a ship without regard for how this will damage the environment and maritime traffic. The western-based government in Tripoli seeks weapons training from the Ukrainians, who will sell them weapons and are interested in oil investments. The Russians support the other government in Libya under General Haftar, based in Benghazi.
The Ukrainian–Russian conflict may, in other words, be transferred to North Africa.
Two officials in Tripoli confirm the secret agreement with Ukraine to AP, adding that it has the support of Western governments, including the United States.
The objective is said to be a reunification of Libya.
According to AP’s sources, the American adviser for African affairs, Massad Boulos, supported the agreement with Ukraine as part of a plan to reunify Libya under a single government, whereby the current Prime Minister Abdul-Hamid Dbeibah would retain his position in Tripoli – and Saddam Haftar, the favoured son of the eastern warlord Khalifa Haftar, would assume a powerful position as head of the Presidential Council. Khalifa Haftar is the commander-in-chief of the Benghazi-based government.
The Ukrainian presence in Libya was apparently intended to limit Russian influence in Libya while the reunification plan matures. AP noted that the United States, Turkey, Italy, and the United Kingdom all have personnel stationed at the Air Defence Academy in Misrata, so they would presumably be aware of the Ukrainian presence.
Neither the Ukrainian nor the Libyan government was willing to comment on the RFI report officially.
That the great powers are positioned on the Tripoli side and seek to defeat the Russian-backed General Haftar opens the possibility of a proxy war in North Africa. What distinguishes Libya from countries further south is that Libya has oil.
Russia is unlikely to allow itself to be pushed out of Libya voluntarily.
An additional delicate aspect concerning the sea drones is that they have been developed in cooperation with the United Kingdom and Norway. Both countries have entered into an agreement with Ukraine to develop the Ukrainian navy, and sea drones are a priority area:
RFI’s sources state that “Arctic Metagaz” was struck by a Ukrainian-produced Magura V5 drone, an unmanned surface vessel (USV) developed to attack Russian naval targets in the Black Sea. The Magura V5 is an 18-foot remote-controlled boat filled with explosives that has proven highly effective against Russian warships.
Sources in Ukrainian security circles state that “Arctic Metagaz” was in fact the second vessel to be attacked by Ukrainian forces in Libya. The first was an oil tanker in the shadow fleet called “Qendil”, which was sailing between Greece and Libya when it was struck by a drone launched from a location near Misrata in Libya.
Norway has allocated 12 billion for the development of drones.
Aftenposten wrote some time ago about a small company at Fornebu that develops underwater drones. These are controlled by means of algorithms that manoeuvre by anticipating obstacles. In other words, they are autonomous.
The article has been removed from Aftenposten’s archive.
Aftenposten writes about a NATO exercise in Portugal in September in which Ukrainian drones disabled a NATO frigate during an exercise.
Magura V-7 has been developed by Ukrainian military intelligence. There is extensive cooperation with Norway and the United Kingdom that is concealed from the public. With 12 billion, much can be achieved.