– A weaker assessment of the current situation has not been seen since the pandemic year 2020, says Chief Economist Øystein Dørum regarding NHO’s latest membership survey.

Only the business sector in Troms (Northern Norway) views the situation somewhat positively, and this may be due to tourism. People from all over the world wish to experience whale safaris and the Northern Lights at historically low prices owing to the weak krone.

In the rest of the country, the outlook is bleak, according to NHO’s data for April. The situation has weakened more or less continuously since August last year.

• Only 19 per cent of enterprises consider the current situation to be good.
• In March, the corresponding figure was 21 per cent.
• 27 per cent expect a deterioration going forward, an increase of 7 percentage points from the previous month.

1,861 member enterprises in NHO have responded to the survey, which shows that in almost all counties there is a predominance of negative future prospects.

The situation is worst in the counties of Trøndelag (central Norway) and Østfold (south-east), with a pessimism score of 26 and 23 respectively. Finnmark (the northernmost county, bordering Russia) stands at zero between optimism and pessimism, while enterprises in Troms (south of Finnmark) experience a slight predominance of optimism amounting to 3 percentage points, according to NHO’s press release.

The view of market prospects has deteriorated by nine percentage points compared with April last year. The corresponding declining trend for the market situation amounts to 11 percentage points.

NHO members’ self-reported market development is strongly downward compared with the peak in 2022. (Chart: NHO)

Dørum says to Dagens Næringsliv (a business daily) that the view of the situation at the beginning of April was on the positive side in only 8 of the 15 national associations. Only 3 of 15 national associations view the next six months positively.

The outlook is worst for the construction industry and Sjømat Norge (‘Seafood Norway’). Otherwise, the general market situation appears strongest in Rogaland and Vestland (large counties on the west coast, with strong offshore and hydroelectric industries), apart from Troms.

Norway’s Central Bank’s reversal on interest rates has, according to Dørum, not helped.

The war in Iran and the prospect of very high oil prices may also have influenced the result. 84 per cent of enterprises respond that they are negatively affected by the war owing to higher prices for fuel, power, freight, and other input factors.