The Swedish Security Service maintains the terror level at a three for the coming year, but it’s the apportionment of blame that’s causing a stir in the latest threat assessment.
The report from the Norwegian Centre for Terrorism Assessment (NCT) highlights right-wing extremists as the primary threat to society, while the danger posed by Islamists is downplayed and explained by mental illness in individuals, writes Samnytt.
The analysis reveals a marked imbalance in how the authorities weight the different communities. While the warnings against right-wing extremism are repeated 14 times throughout the document, left-wing extremism is almost absent and is only mentioned once. Then the left is only mentioned as a possible counter-reaction to activities from the right.
Fear of Islamisation
Säpo emphasises that the threat from the right is fuelled by narratives about the collapse of society. In particular, the authorities point out that opposition to immigration acts as a radicalisation factor. The report highlights that it is the perceived Islamisation of society and rising crime that motivates these communities to action.
By consistently using the phrase “perceived Islamisation”, the security services signal that they consider the population’s concern about societal developments to be a figment of their imagination rather than a description of reality. It warns that these political perceptions are being used to promote desires for a more ethnically homogeneous society.
Diagnosis before ideology
The contrast is stark when the report describes violent Islamism. Here, the authorities believe that the threat is no longer driven by ideological conviction or established terrorist organisations. Instead of viewing Islamism as an organised political and religious threat, Säpo now chooses to pathologise the terrorists.
Terrorist plots explained as attention-seeking
This new analysis has a tangible impact on how terrorist attempts are assessed. The report highlights a 19-year-old Syrian who was recently convicted of planning a terrorist attack on the Stockholm Culture Festival. Although he swore allegiance to ISIS and acted in the name of the terrorist group, the security services chose to interpret his actions as a manifestation of individual problems and a cry for attention.
The conclusion from the Swedish authorities is thus that the right-wing constitutes a dangerous political threat fuelled by hatred, while Islamists are largely excused as confused individuals with mental disorders.