Tuesday marks the fourth anniversary of Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine.

Foreign Minister Espen Barth Eide uses the occasion to deliver little sensational analysis to Dagsavisen and states that he does not take it for granted that the war will be over before we reach a fifth anniversary.

Analyses the obvious

In a recent interview with Dagsavisen, the Foreign Minister shares his reflections on the conflict that has now raged for four long years. Eide warns against false hopes and manages to say that «I do not take it for granted that there will not also be a fifth anniversary». For most who have followed the bloody trench warfare and the lack of real movement on the front line, this scarcely appears to be any profound or groundbreaking insight. He adds that it is positive that more is happening in the peace talks now than a year ago.

He nevertheless immediately hedges by pointing out that the major questions still remain.

Trump demands elections

While Eide speaks in familiar and rounded diplomatic terms about peace having to be acceptable to the Ukrainians, there are other international actors who set far more concrete demands. The President of the United States, Donald Trump, now demands that Ukraine conduct presidential elections before the summer in order at all to continue an American support process. The Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyj has responded that he is willing to hold elections provided that the country first receives issued security guarantees.

Twelve years of conflict

Barth Eide also reminds readers that the war has in reality lasted for twelve years, since Russia annexed the Crimean Peninsula as early as 2014. Despite thousands of lost human lives, Russian forces have thus far managed to take control of barely twenty per cent of Ukrainian territory. The Foreign Minister concludes the round with yet another truism when he states that Russia’s strategy of bombing energy infrastructure in order to force a surrender is evidently not functioning.