Foreign Minister Espen Barth Eide is convinced that he has seen through Donald Trump’s strategy for Greenland.

During a conference in Oslo on Tuesday, he spent time explaining how European firmness is said to have forced the US president to retreat. Barth Eide portrays the issue as having been resolved because Trump stated that he will not use military force, despite the fact that the president has never said that he has shelved his desire to link Greenland more closely to the US.

New faith in European strength

In an interview in Dagsavisen, the Norwegian Labour Party’s foreign minister suggests that threats of tariffs and sanctions from Europe frightened the US. He paints a picture in which the EU and Canada virtually dictated developments and made Trump change his mind. Barth Eide seems to believe that the US president is being guided by signals from Brussels and Oslo. This belief in his own and Europe’s excellence overshadows the fact that Trump has only adjusted his tactics, not necessarily his goals.

Failed analysis of the situation

Barth Eide also claims to have full insight into internal American conditions. He points to unrest in the American business community and reactions in the Maga landscape as decisive factors. The foreign minister seems to believe that he understands Trump’s motives better than the president himself. While Eide breathes a sigh of relief and celebrates the fact that NATO countries should not attack each other, he overlooks the fact that Trump has a history of achieving his goals through patience and negotiation, rather than giving up at the first hint of resistance.

A seventh sense for wishful thinking

It is a clearly confident Secretary of State who is now explaining to the world that the danger is over. By interpreting Trump’s statement in Davos as a complete turnaround, Barth Eide risks underestimating the US administration’s willingness to pursue its strategic interests in the Arctic. The fact that the President chooses to refrain from using military force right now does not mean that the last word has been said on the Greenland issue.

Barth Eide’s conclusion therefore appears more like wishful thinking than real political insight.

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