Little brother out in the ocean to the west – with a population of 402,000 people – threatens to breathe new life into a deadlocked and seemingly shelved EU debate here at home.

On 29 August, Iceland will hold a referendum to decide whether the country should resume negotiations with the EU on possible membership of the Union. The people will once again decide whether Iceland should become a member when the outcome of the negotiations is eventually placed on the table.

Opposition to the EU in Iceland has, as in Norway, been substantial. But strong pro-EU forces argue, as they do in Norway, that it is better to join and be part of the Union – and thereby part of “Europe” – than to remain outside.

The great mantra of EU supporters, both in Norway and in Iceland, is that membership gives us co-determination rights. Then we are helping to steer the EU ship – we have our hands on the wheel, as they say. Indeed they do…

What do we get?

Let us take a closer look at this co-determination right. After a quick calculation (double-checked, just to be safe), the following is perfectly clear precisely as regards co-determination:

Iceland, with the aforementioned population of just over 400,000 windswept but hardy souls, would receive six representatives in the European Parliament, which has a total of 720 members. That corresponds to 0.8 per cent. Norway, with its 5.6 million somewhat less hardy inhabitants, would receive 14 representatives in the European Parliament. That corresponds to 1.9 per cent of the total 720.

A colossal deception

What was that again – co-determination? Listen(!), Ine Marie Søreide (Conservative Party) and Guri Melby (Liberal Party), and all the rest of you who are so enthusiastic about this tremendous and absolutely crucial co-determination right: It simply does not exist! The whole thing is an anti-democratic deception for countries such as Norway, not to mention Iceland.

According to current opinion polls, Melby would certainly not obtain a seat. Søreide would have to sit alone with one or two Labour Party representatives and four representatives from the Progress Party. That is the reality. In the European Commission, which is not democratically elected and where only the interests of the Union are to be considered – where it is unlawful to work for the cherished causes of one’s home country – both countries receive one representative. Those are the rules, pure and simple. Full stop.

Iceland has fish and marine resources, and not much else to offer when membership is negotiated. One cannot sell hot springs and glaciers, at least not for the time being. Nor tourism, when the average temperature in July is nine or ten degrees on average, and twelve when the sun shines on a rare occasion.

Will say no – naturally

But few guard their fish as carefully as Iceland, let that be clear. It is not handed over for juggling in the European Commission.

My prediction is that the negotiated outcome with the EU will be so poor, viewed through the eyes of ordinary Icelanders, that they will remain – together with Norway (and Liechtenstein) – in EFTA.

There is hope

To the extent that Iceland can compare its day-to-day governance with Norway’s, it has, like us, an EEA Agreement, which already in a number of areas binds the country hand and foot to the EU. As we have seen in a number of cases in Norway, such as sovereignty over electricity and energy, EU law prevails over Norwegian and Icelandic law when the interests of the nations come into conflict with the interests and regulatory framework of the Union.

But so long as we remain outside a signed and sealed membership, and are not tied hand and foot, completely neutralised as a democracy, entirely without our own freedom and independent popular self-government – then there is, in fact, hope.

Given the almost non-existent representation demonstrated in this case, it is quite clear that both Iceland and, naturally, Norway must unequivocally advise against and most strongly reject membership. It would amount to stripping Iceland and Norway of their status as independent nations – non-existent except on paper.