The proportion of people of European descent (often referred to as “white” in a demographic context) has declined significantly in the 20th and 21st centuries. This is the most marked global demographic shift in modern times.

Around 1900, Europe and the European diaspora in North America, Australia, New Zealand, parts of Latin America, and South Africa constituted an estimated 30–36 per cent of the world’s population. The world’s total population at that time was approximately 1.6–1.7 billion.

Dramatic relative decline

In 2025, with a global population of more than 8.2 billion, the proportion of people of primarily European descent is estimated at 10–14 per cent, depending upon definition. Stricter definitions (predominantly unmixed European origin) lie around 8–12 per cent, while figures that include substantial European heritage in Latin America are higher. An analysis from 2025 estimated around 1.118 billion people of predominantly European descent, or approximately 13.8 per cent.

This represents a dramatic relative decline, while the absolute numbers of people of European descent have remained fairly stable or grown slightly in some periods.

Several factors explain the development:

• Europe and countries with European majorities experienced a demographic transition early. Fertility rates fell below the replacement level of 2.1 children per woman already during the 20th century in many Western countries. Today, fertility in Europe often lies at 1.3–1.8. Africa, Asia, and Latin America have had higher fertility through much of the period, which led to explosive population growth after 1950, particularly in sub-Saharan Africa.
• The world’s population grew from approximately 1.6 billion in 1900 to more than eight billion today. Asia and Africa have accounted for the greater part of this growth. Europe went from constituting around 25 per cent of the world’s population in 1900 to under ten per cent today.
• Western countries have experienced large-scale immigration from Asia, Africa, and Latin America. In the United States, the proportion of non-Hispanic whites has fallen from around 84 per cent in 1965 to under 60 per cent today. Similar tendencies are seen in Canada, Australia, and parts of Europe.
• “White” or “European descent” is not a biologically absolute category. Censuses use self-identification and interracial marriages are increasing. In Latin America, many people with mixed heritage identify themselves as white.

This relative decline has led to debate concerning cultural identity, politics, and future influence. In Western countries, there is discussion of how ageing populations, lower birth rates, and increased immigration affect society, the welfare state, the labour market, and the social fabric.

Absolute numbers of people of European descent remain historically high, and many countries with European majorities retain strong economic, technological, and cultural influence. Global trends nevertheless show that Asia (especially India) and Africa will dominate population growth in the present century.

Demography is destiny

UN projections indicate that Europe’s share may decline further to around seven per cent by 2050, while Africa’s population will continue to grow.

Demography is destiny in the sense that population size and composition over time affect economy, power, and culture. The relative decline of those of European ancestry is also a result of “success” in the form of low mortality and prosperity in combination with low fertility.

– Konsekvensene blir enorme når europeerne blir en minoritet i egne land