At the time of writing, it remains unclear whether the planned negotiations between the United States and representatives of the Iranian Islamic regime will take place. Trump is officially full of optimism, while the opposing side is sending out contradictory signals.
They should make up their minds soon, for that ceasefire will scarcely last long. But if they were to appear in Islamabad, what would they then negotiate about?
As the Iranian (exile) journalist Mahyar Tousi explains to Fox News, the Iranians do not know which leg to stand on. The Islamic regime is in fact divided between three factions, namely the formerly sovereign holders of power, the mullahs, the Revolutionary Guard (IRGC), and what remains of the government, and they are evidently in disagreement over the strategy towards the Americans.
It appears that some of the politicians wish to negotiate, while the leaders of the Revolutionary Guard have chosen an uncompromising and defiant line.
So if Vice-President JD Vance and his delegation were to arrive in the capital of Pakistan, with whom would he then negotiate? Is it Iran’s Foreign Minister, the theocrats, or the Revolutionary Guard?
The latter has just acquired a new chief in the form of General Ahmad Vahidi, one of the most extreme and uncompromising proponents of “Death to America” and “Death to Israel”. A man who has evidently decided that it best serves his bloodthirsty cause to reject any concession towards “the Great Satan” – even if the price were to be Iran’s ruin. If only his Revolutionary Guard can survive, he will regard it as a victory. What happens to the Iranian population is of no concern to him.
It is unclear what Trump hopes to achieve through negotiations. His unwavering demands for nuclear disarmament, a halt to Iran’s missile production and financing of foreign terror, will be tantamount to the capitulation of the Islamic State, for its very raison d’être is aggression against, and death to, anyone who does not submit to the regime’s Shia ideology.
And should Vance succeed in getting the Iranians to promise something that Trump could present as a victory, and withdraw the American forces, he must know that the Iranians will break any promise as soon as their planes from Islamabad land in Iran. They will without hesitation resume their nuclear weapons and missile programmes and supply their foreign terror militias with as many weapons and as much money as they can spare.
We shall see what Trump’s plan in fact entails, and it will be demonstrated in action. For we cannot place much trust in what he says – which is often intended to confuse his opponents.
In this difficult situation, the Islamic regime may take comfort in having strong allies in the form of the American mainstream media and the Democratic Party in the United States.
Representatives of the latter in Congress are expending all their energy on forcing Trump to cease the struggle immediately, regardless of what the Islamic men in Tehran may do. The media are doing everything to portray the United States’ military effort as unsuccessful and are attempting to persuade the American population that the Iranian regime is invincible. The purpose is evidently to turn public opinion against Trump, and thereby grant the executioners in Tehran the victory they could not win on the battlefield.
Trump has indicated that he will not extend the ceasefire if the so-called negotiations do not proceed as he wishes.
What he will then do is uncertain. He speaks of destroying all bridges and Iran’s entire power supply through new air strikes. But perhaps he has a better plan that will spare the Iranian population, among whom the majority regard Trump and Netanyahu as their liberators?
Perhaps Trump need do nothing more than maintain the naval blockade outside the Strait of Hormuz, which prevents Iran’s exports and imports and at the same time inflicts upon Iran a daily economic loss estimated at 400 million dollars.
No matter how bloodthirsty one may be, one must have something to eat in order to preserve one’s fighting capacity. That also applies to Iran’s real holders of power in the Revolutionary Guard. One cannot live on torture, hangings and mass murder.