All the wise heads in Western media and war analysis agree that Trump’s “headless and improvised war” against Iran has ended as a failure for the US President, who has dropped everything on the floor. Here is a small excerpt from the Danish centre/left media Politiken, Børsen and Berlingske: “Everything points in Iran’s favour in the confrontation. Trump is twisting in a strategic straitjacket. A ticking bomb under Trump. Trump is backed into a corner. Trump can choose between a major defeat and a gigantic defeat.”
After nearly a month of hostilities, it might be interesting to see what trump cards Iran had up its sleeve before the first peace negotiations in Pakistan. Firstly, they had to field military and political leaders from the reserve bench, as the entire first team had been wiped out. Their entire war fleet of around 150 vessels lies at the bottom of the sea. 20,000 Israeli and American bombing raids have destroyed all radar and warning systems. Iran’s air defence has been eliminated. Their missile factories have been destroyed. American and Israeli aircraft have total air supremacy over Iran, where even the old A-10 Hedgehog dive bombers without radar stealth can operate unhindered against Iranian targets. Out of fear of a popular uprising, the ayatollahs have shut down the internet and since the New Year have killed 30,000 of their own citizens. Outside Iran’s borders lies a gigantic American armada in wait, ready to finish the job if the Iranians do not accept the American peace terms.
If the victorious Iranians nevertheless sit at the negotiating table, it is because they have nowhere else to turn. On the other side of the table sits President Trump, who, like the eagle in the American coat of arms, holds a bundle of sharp arrows in one claw and an olive branch in the other. Together, this symbolises the United States’ national motto: peace through strength. The American conditions have been clearly formulated from the first day of the attack: Iran shall dismantle its nuclear weapons programme, halt the production of missiles capable of carrying nuclear warheads, and finally refrain from engaging in terrorism and military operations beyond Iran’s borders.
However, there is no chance that the remaining Iranian leaders will accept these proposals. Perhaps formally, but never in practice. The Islamic Republic has an almost 50-year-old tradition of lying about everything, breaking all agreements, and cheating and deceiving whenever possible. All this is not only permitted, but prescribed in Islam’s sacred texts if it serves the cause of Allah. If Iran were to accept the American peace diktat, it would mean the end of Iran as an Islamic state. It would lose its raison d’être and its entire purpose, as laid down in the constitution and through decades of purposeful effort.
In Shia Islam, the doctrine of the 12th Imam is the precondition for the entire ideology in practice. Since around the year 900, Imam Muhammad al-Mahdi (the Saviour) has waited in occultation to reveal himself and, as caliph, establish peace and divine order throughout the world. The Islamic Republic is tasked with preparing for the coming of the Mahdi by realising the conditions for Shia Islam’s global dominion. The Republic therefore pledged three sacred vows in 1979 to Ayatollah Khomeini, who is regarded as the Mahdi’s representative on earth until the Saviour himself appears: first, to eradicate the State of Israel; second, to combat the heretical doctrine of Sunni Islam; and third, to establish Shia Islam as the world’s leading and ultimately sole faith and ideology.
It is therefore impossible for Islamic Iran to accept the dismantling of its nuclear weapons programme, which is a prerequisite for the destruction of Israel. Without nuclear weapons, Israel can never be defeated. And without missiles, nuclear warheads cannot be delivered to their targets in Israel and the United States. And without strong alliances with the loyal militias Hamas, Hizbollah, the Houthis and the Iraqi forces, it will not be possible to break the back of the hated Sunni Muslims led by Saudi Arabia. The Iranian peace negotiators are inseparably bound to these sacred vows, for which they have fought tirelessly for 47 years. Without them, no Mahdi, no Shia empire.
The ayatollahs are caught in a vice, and there is no way out. Twenty per cent of the world’s oil consumption passes through the Strait of Hormuz, but only three per cent originates from Iran. The remaining 17 per cent comes from Saudi Arabia and the Gulf states. The US blockade therefore aims to halt all traffic into and out of Iranian ports while ensuring free passage for the others. If this does not succeed at first, the United States will likely bomb the pumping stations at the quay facilities at the Kharg terminal, and then it will be the end of Iranian oil to China and other customers. If Iran cannot sell its oil, all storage tanks will be filled within three weeks, which according to the data institute Vortexa means that the oil fields must be shut down, to the great detriment of future production.
Ninety per cent of Iran’s trade passes through the Persian Gulf. According to senior researcher Miad Maleki of the FDD institute, this concerns energy exports worth nearly 80 billion dollars annually and imports of machinery and consumer goods worth 58 billion dollars. This trade is indispensable for Iran’s economy, which will quickly collapse if the blockade continues. In February, food inflation in Iran reached 107 per cent. Economist Hadi Kahalzadeh estimates that 12 million Iranian wage earners face redundancy, as their workplaces have been damaged or no longer exist. This thus applies to almost all production of steel, fertiliser and medicines. The think tank Bourse & Bazaar in London estimates that we can expect a massive wave of fleeing Iranians who at any cost will want to leave the devastated Islamic Republic.
Seen from a Danish media perspective, Trump has now painted himself into a corner with no other escape than chaos and defeat. Berlingske could even, with great satisfaction, report that Trump is losing his mind. The ayatollahs can prepare for the victory parade.