The recent survey Folkevalgtbarometeret for 2026 shows a dramatic decline in confidence in Prime Minister Jonas Gahr Støre among local politicians on the left.

While Dagsavisen attempts to explain the development by reference to tough negotiations and temporary surges in popularity, the figures depict a deeper ideological split within the red-green landscape.

The decline is particularly striking in the Green Party (Miljøpartiet De Grønne). Here, confidence in Støre’s ability to lead the country in times of crisis has fallen from 82 per cent last year to 57 per cent this year. A clear decline is also evident in the Socialist Left Party (Sosialistisk Venstreparti).

A political shift towards the centre

There is reason to ask whether the cause of the decline in confidence in fact lies in Støre’s clear shift towards the political centre in order to secure the survival of his single-party Labour government (Arbeiderparti-regjering). The introduction of tax cuts on petrol and diesel immediately prior to the survey stands as a red rag to the environmentally oriented parties. When Støre chooses to prioritise such measures over the demands of MDG and SV, it is natural that loyalty erodes.

At the same time, we observe an interesting development among the bourgeois centre parties. Among local politicians in Venstre, confidence in Støre has increased from 13 to 30 per cent in one year. A similar tendency is also evident in the Christian Democratic Party (Kristelig Folkeparti). This suggests that Støre is in reality leading a government that increasingly appeals to the centre-right rather than to its traditional partners on the left.

A new political landscape

The election in 2025 has altered the balance of power in the Storting completely. The Progress Party (Fremskrittspartiet) has consolidated its position as a dominant force, with support at 23.8 per cent. This is also reflected in justice policy, where Jon Engen-Helgheim now serves as chair of the Justice Committee (justiskomiteen). He has been clear that security must be restored through stronger measures against organised crime, which stands in sharp contrast to the more cautious line often advocated by the left.

Neither Støre nor the Labour Party (Arbeiderpartiet) can any longer take the support of SV and MDG for granted. When Stoltenberg, as Minister of Finance, pursues a strict economic policy that garners recognition in Venstre, the distance to Rødt and the other fringe parties only increases. It is perhaps here that we find the most realistic explanation for why confidence is declining. It is not merely a matter of tough negotiations, but of a government that has chosen to govern from the centre and has thereby sidelined its former allies for the seventh consecutive year in various constellations of power.

For Støre, this means that he must navigate a landscape in which he is more popular among opponents in the centre than among his own supporters on the left. This constitutes a fragile base of power that may prove highly demanding when the major political battles unfold throughout 2026.