Trump says in an interview with the Financial Times that he expects assistance from Europe and China in keeping the Strait of Hormuz open. Otherwise it will have very negative consequences for NATO. It is the first time Trump directly links the war against Iran with cooperation within the alliance.
“It is only reasonable that those who benefit from the strait contribute to ensuring that nothing bad happens there,” Trump said, arguing that Europe and China are highly dependent on oil from the Gulf region, unlike the United States. “If there is no response, or if the response is negative, I think it will be very bad for NATO’s future,” he added.
Europe is having difficulty relating to Trump’s direct manner of conducting politics. Støre held a Nordic prime ministers’ meeting in Oslo on Sunday where the theme was the emphasis on Nordic cohesion together with Canada and distancing from Trump’s United States. Trump is now confronting them with a realpolitik choice: Contribute or sail your own sea.
There are around ten Norwegian tankers lying and waiting to pass through. Støre has said that this is not Norway’s table.
Trump is now playing the NATO card:
“We have something called NATO,” Trump said, who has often criticised the alliance. “We have been very nice. We didn’t need to help them with Ukraine. Ukraine is thousands of kilometres away from us… But we helped them. Now we will see if they help us. Because I have long said that we will be there for them, but that they will not be there for us. And I am not sure that they will be there.”
NATO is built on the principle one-for-all-all-for-one. Trump is now saying that he does not believe Europe will be there for America when America needs help.
Trump is in other words saying that the alliance ceases to exist if one party can choose when it wishes to participate.
In an alliance, one party cannot opt out of the other’s interests.
But what can Europe contribute in the Persian Gulf? Trump mentions minesweepers. Europe has far more of them than America. Iran is militarily broken, but can create trouble and chaos in the immediate area. The Europeans can provide special forces, for example.
“We are cracking down hard on them,” Trump said. “They have no other choice than to make a little trouble in the strait, but these people are beneficiaries and should help us monitor it. We will help them. But they should also be present. In a way you need many people to watch a few.”
The United Kingdom receives a proper dressing-down.
“The United Kingdom can be regarded as the most important ally, the one that has been with us the longest and so on, and when I asked them to come they would not come,” he said. “And as soon as we had in practice eliminated the threat from Iran, they said: ‘Well, we will send two ships’, and I said: ‘We need those ships before we win, not after we have won’. I have long said that NATO is a one-way street.”
Trump asked for help from Japan, South Korea, China, France, and the United Kingdom. He spoke with Starmer earlier on Sunday, but was merciless in his characterisation of Starmer.
The Nordic prime ministers said the United States was the most important, but not the closest. Trump has perceived the signal and responds that then NATO is no more. He has always experienced NATO as a one-way street. The Nordic prime ministers and Carney have overplayed their hand.
The forthcoming visit to China may be postponed if China does not deploy a fleet. China receives 90 per cent of its oil through Hormuz. It is in their own interest that the strait remains open. Now it is the uncertainty that makes ships unwilling to sail.
If a coalition of states declared themselves willing to contribute it would have a stabilising effect.
Norway profits heavily from high oil prices. In addition, one can obtain defeat for the Republicans in the midterm elections as a bonus. But for other countries high oil prices are a killer for the economy. It spreads to all sectors.
Iran has no other alternatives than to spread chaos; they have lost the possibilities for resistance. But do they understand that Trump can take out their oil exports?
“You saw that we hit Kharg Island, everything except the pipelines yesterday,” he said, referring to a bombing raid he announced on Friday. “We can hit it in five minutes. And there is nothing they can do about it.”